Will Google be the third-best AI lab at the end of December 2026?
Implied probability 10%−2
24-hour volume$201
Total volume$7k
Liquidity$3k
Resolves1 Jan 2027
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 10% |
| 6 Nov, 06:49 UTC | 10% |
| 6 Nov, 03:30 UTC | 10% |
| 5 Nov, 03:51 UTC | 12% |
| 4 Nov, 22:27 UTC | 15% |
| 4 Nov, 20:45 UTC | 16% |
| 4 Nov, 20:23 UTC | 15% |
| 4 Nov, 19:35 UTC | 14% |
| 4 Nov, 19:19 UTC | 15% |
| 4 Nov, 18:42 UTC | 15% |
| 4 Nov, 18:27 UTC | 16% |
| 4 Nov, 17:42 UTC | 15% |
| 4 Nov, 17:27 UTC | 15% |
| 4 Nov, 16:20 UTC | 14% |
| 4 Nov, 15:58 UTC | 15% |
| 3 Nov, 15:50 UTC | 12% |
Your call. How does this end?
Free, no money involved. Calls are scored against the market's price when you make them, so backing an underdog that wins scores most. Leaderboard · Your calls
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What counts
The market resolves by checking the arena.ai Text Arena leaderboard on December 31, 2026, at 12:00 PM ET. Google must hold the third-highest rank among AI labs to trigger the 'Yes' outcome; otherwise, it resolves to 'No'. Readers often mistake the ranking source or ignore the rule that 'AutoEval' models are excluded from the count.
Written from Polymarket's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Polymarket are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 10%
- No 91%
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