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France accuses foreign country of provoking unrest by November 30?

Implied probability 14%−1
24-hour volume$2k
Total volume$26k
Liquidity$45k
Resolves1 Dec 2026
How the odds moved · France accuses foreign country of provoking unrest by November 30?
0%50%100%14%21 Oct, 22:53 UTCnow
Price data
TimeChance of yes
now14%
25 Oct, 01:08 UTC14%
24 Oct, 15:08 UTC14%
24 Oct, 13:45 UTC14%
24 Oct, 11:05 UTC14%
24 Oct, 10:37 UTC14%
23 Oct, 12:36 UTC14%
23 Oct, 12:02 UTC14%
23 Oct, 11:06 UTC15%
23 Oct, 10:46 UTC18%
23 Oct, 10:24 UTC19%
23 Oct, 07:54 UTC10%
23 Oct, 07:26 UTC11%
22 Oct, 19:37 UTC9%
22 Oct, 19:23 UTC10%
22 Oct, 18:56 UTC11%
22 Oct, 13:49 UTC8%
22 Oct, 12:43 UTC8%
22 Oct, 11:45 UTC9%
22 Oct, 09:47 UTC9%
22 Oct, 09:26 UTC11%
22 Oct, 08:53 UTC12%
22 Oct, 08:29 UTC12%
22 Oct, 07:54 UTC10%
22 Oct, 07:22 UTC5%
22 Oct, 06:53 UTC5%
22 Oct, 06:00 UTC6%
22 Oct, 05:53 UTC7%
22 Oct, 05:25 UTC8%
22 Oct, 03:23 UTC12%
22 Oct, 02:54 UTC10%
22 Oct, 01:44 UTC14%
22 Oct, 00:52 UTC14%
21 Oct, 22:53 UTC14%

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What counts

The outcome is Yes if an authorized French government representative makes an on-the-record public statement explicitly claiming that a foreign country deliberately caused or facilitated the unrest by November 30, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET. The outcome is No if no such direct claim of deliberate intent exists from an official source within that deadline.

Written from Polymarket's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Polymarket are what decides it.

Outcomes

  • Yes 14%
  • No 87%

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