Will Flávio Bolsonaro return to Brazil by November 30, 2026?
Implied probability 2%
24-hour volume$150
Total volume$10k
Liquidity$18k
Resolves1 Dec 2026
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 2% |
| 3 Nov, 10:22 UTC | 2% |
| 1 Nov, 16:36 UTC | 1% |
| 1 Nov, 16:22 UTC | 1% |
| 1 Nov, 11:33 UTC | 2% |
| 1 Nov, 11:19 UTC | 2% |
| 1 Nov, 01:38 UTC | 2% |
| 31 Oct, 18:48 UTC | 2% |
| 31 Oct, 17:42 UTC | 2% |
| 31 Oct, 15:30 UTC | 2% |
| 31 Oct, 15:22 UTC | 2% |
| 31 Oct, 12:18 UTC | 2% |
| 31 Oct, 10:59 UTC | 2% |
| 30 Oct, 22:07 UTC | 2% |
| 30 Oct, 17:49 UTC | 2% |
| 30 Oct, 15:35 UTC | 2% |
| 30 Oct, 15:21 UTC | 2% |
| 30 Oct, 14:58 UTC | 2% |
| 30 Oct, 14:16 UTC | 2% |
| 30 Oct, 13:58 UTC | 2% |
| 30 Oct, 13:20 UTC | 2% |
| 30 Oct, 12:59 UTC | 2% |
| 30 Oct, 12:24 UTC | 2% |
| 30 Oct, 11:59 UTC | 2% |
| 30 Oct, 03:47 UTC | 2% |
| 29 Oct, 19:08 UTC | 2% |
| 29 Oct, 18:35 UTC | 2% |
| 29 Oct, 18:06 UTC | 2% |
| 29 Oct, 17:46 UTC | 2% |
| 29 Oct, 15:22 UTC | 2% |
| 29 Oct, 13:29 UTC | 2% |
| 29 Oct, 12:59 UTC | 2% |
| 29 Oct, 09:55 UTC | 2% |
| 29 Oct, 09:26 UTC | 2% |
| 29 Oct, 07:51 UTC | 2% |
| 29 Oct, 07:05 UTC | 3% |
| 29 Oct, 06:37 UTC | 2% |
| 29 Oct, 06:18 UTC | 2% |
| 29 Oct, 03:28 UTC | 3% |
| 29 Oct, 00:41 UTC | 3% |
| 29 Oct, 00:27 UTC | 3% |
| 28 Oct, 23:04 UTC | 3% |
| 28 Oct, 22:32 UTC | 3% |
| 28 Oct, 22:18 UTC | 3% |
| 28 Oct, 20:09 UTC | 3% |
| 28 Oct, 19:55 UTC | 3% |
| 28 Oct, 19:26 UTC | 4% |
| 28 Oct, 18:14 UTC | 3% |
| 28 Oct, 17:47 UTC | 3% |
Your call. How does this end?
Free, no money involved. Calls are scored against the market's price when you make them, so backing an underdog that wins scores most. Leaderboard · Your calls
Does the market have this right?
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What counts
The market resolves to Yes if Flávio Bolsonaro physically enters the land territory of Brazil before 11:59 PM ET on November 30, 2026. It resolves to No if he does not make this physical entry by that deadline. Readers often mistake entering Brazilian airspace or maritime waters for a return, but only terrestrial presence counts.
Written from Polymarket's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Polymarket are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 2%
- No 98%
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