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Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by September 30, 2026?

Resolved: No 39m ago

The market favoured Yes at 84% a day out, but No won. How often it's right

Final probability 0%
24-hour volume$170k
Total volume$1.6M
Liquidity$0
Resolved1 Oct 2026

Why it moved: −61 points at 18:15 UTC, after Al Jazeera – Breaking News, World News and Video from Al Jazeera: Trump says US officials met with Iranian delegation for three hours — the latest article on its stories before the jump; what followed, not what caused it.

How the odds moved · Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by September 30, 2026?
0%50%100%0%19 Sept, 07:15 UTCnow
Price data
TimeChance of yes
now0%
22 Sept, 21:26 UTC0%
22 Sept, 20:50 UTC0%
22 Sept, 20:20 UTC0%
22 Sept, 19:42 UTC0%
22 Sept, 19:28 UTC1%
22 Sept, 18:58 UTC11%
22 Sept, 18:15 UTC14%
22 Sept, 17:54 UTC75%
22 Sept, 17:20 UTC72%
22 Sept, 16:46 UTC78%
22 Sept, 16:28 UTC77%
22 Sept, 15:55 UTC75%
22 Sept, 15:23 UTC69%
22 Sept, 14:57 UTC62%
22 Sept, 14:28 UTC63%
22 Sept, 13:57 UTC67%
22 Sept, 13:23 UTC66%
22 Sept, 12:57 UTC67%
22 Sept, 12:20 UTC66%
22 Sept, 11:59 UTC63%
22 Sept, 11:27 UTC67%
22 Sept, 10:43 UTC68%
22 Sept, 10:26 UTC69%
22 Sept, 09:59 UTC81%
22 Sept, 09:20 UTC86%
22 Sept, 08:56 UTC86%
22 Sept, 08:22 UTC85%
22 Sept, 07:17 UTC84%
22 Sept, 06:51 UTC84%
22 Sept, 06:08 UTC85%
22 Sept, 05:35 UTC85%
22 Sept, 05:05 UTC85%
22 Sept, 04:45 UTC85%
22 Sept, 04:26 UTC85%
22 Sept, 03:46 UTC84%
22 Sept, 03:21 UTC85%
22 Sept, 02:55 UTC85%
22 Sept, 00:20 UTC85%
21 Sept, 23:49 UTC85%
21 Sept, 21:54 UTC85%
21 Sept, 21:23 UTC85%
21 Sept, 20:34 UTC84%
21 Sept, 20:27 UTC85%
21 Sept, 19:55 UTC86%
21 Sept, 18:05 UTC85%
21 Sept, 17:37 UTC86%
21 Sept, 17:02 UTC86%
21 Sept, 16:23 UTC86%
21 Sept, 15:49 UTC86%
21 Sept, 15:29 UTC84%
21 Sept, 14:55 UTC83%
21 Sept, 14:29 UTC83%
21 Sept, 13:39 UTC87%
21 Sept, 13:24 UTC87%
21 Sept, 12:08 UTC87%
21 Sept, 10:44 UTC87%
21 Sept, 10:17 UTC88%
21 Sept, 09:46 UTC87%
21 Sept, 09:16 UTC89%
21 Sept, 08:37 UTC87%
21 Sept, 08:24 UTC87%
21 Sept, 07:28 UTC87%
21 Sept, 05:55 UTC86%
21 Sept, 05:09 UTC87%
21 Sept, 04:50 UTC86%
21 Sept, 03:42 UTC87%
21 Sept, 02:40 UTC87%
21 Sept, 01:48 UTC86%
21 Sept, 01:19 UTC86%
21 Sept, 00:24 UTC83%
20 Sept, 23:08 UTC80%
20 Sept, 22:05 UTC80%
20 Sept, 21:46 UTC80%
20 Sept, 20:54 UTC80%
20 Sept, 20:03 UTC80%
20 Sept, 19:07 UTC80%
20 Sept, 18:52 UTC81%
20 Sept, 17:40 UTC81%
20 Sept, 17:29 UTC81%
20 Sept, 16:57 UTC79%
20 Sept, 16:29 UTC79%
20 Sept, 15:55 UTC81%
20 Sept, 15:28 UTC84%
20 Sept, 10:26 UTC88%
20 Sept, 09:41 UTC88%
20 Sept, 09:15 UTC88%
20 Sept, 08:57 UTC88%
20 Sept, 08:15 UTC87%
20 Sept, 07:46 UTC87%
20 Sept, 07:15 UTC87%
19 Sept, 07:15 UTC88%

What counts

The market resolves based on the country where the next formal senior-level US-Iran peace talks begin by September 30, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET. A qualifying meeting requires deliberate in-person diplomacy between authorized senior representatives, excluding follow-on technical talks or brief greetings.

Written from Polymarket's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Polymarket are what decides it.

Outcomes

  • Yes 0%
  • No 100%

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