Israel military action against Lebanon on October 9?
Final probability 100%
24-hour volume$405
Total volume$2k
Liquidity$14k
Resolved10 Oct 2026
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 100% |
| 10 Oct, 19:18 UTC | 100% |
| 9 Oct, 20:55 UTC | 99% |
| 9 Oct, 20:27 UTC | 99% |
| 9 Oct, 17:32 UTC | 99% |
| 9 Oct, 17:25 UTC | 98% |
| 9 Oct, 13:28 UTC | 98% |
| 9 Oct, 12:52 UTC | 98% |
| 9 Oct, 12:24 UTC | 98% |
| 9 Oct, 11:55 UTC | 98% |
| 9 Oct, 11:29 UTC | 98% |
| 9 Oct, 10:47 UTC | 98% |
| 9 Oct, 10:15 UTC | 98% |
| 9 Oct, 09:55 UTC | 98% |
| 9 Oct, 09:20 UTC | 96% |
| 9 Oct, 08:55 UTC | 96% |
| 9 Oct, 08:28 UTC | 96% |
| 8 Oct, 13:00 UTC | 87% |
| 8 Oct, 12:45 UTC | 87% |
| 8 Oct, 12:09 UTC | 87% |
| 8 Oct, 11:54 UTC | 86% |
| 8 Oct, 11:25 UTC | 89% |
| 8 Oct, 10:38 UTC | 87% |
| 8 Oct, 10:07 UTC | 86% |
| 8 Oct, 09:59 UTC | 87% |
| 8 Oct, 09:23 UTC | 86% |
| 7 Oct, 09:16 UTC | 86% |
What counts
The market resolves to Yes if Israel launches an air strike or surface-to-surface missile that directly hits Lebanese land or internal waters on October 9 Jerusalem time. It resolves to No for any other outcome, including intercepted munitions, ground incursions, or actions in Lebanese airspace and maritime territory.
Written from Polymarket's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Polymarket are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 100%
- No 0%
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