Will Spider-Man: Brand New Day be the top grossing movie of 2026?
Implied probability 96%+1
24-hour volume$951
Total volume$677k
Liquidity$63k
Resolves8 Jan 2027
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 96% |
| 1 Oct, 00:01 UTC | 96% |
| 27 Sept, 07:48 UTC | 95% |
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What counts
The market resolves based on which film has the highest domestic calendar gross in 2026 according to Box Office Mojo once December 31 data is posted. Only earnings accumulated within the 2026 calendar year count toward this total. Readers often mistake the global box office for the relevant metric, but only domestic gross matters here.
Written from Polymarket's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Polymarket are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 96%
- No 5%
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