Will there be 0 hurricanes during the Atlantic Hurricane Season in 2026?
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 37% |
| 21 Sept, 20:18 UTC | 37% |
| 21 Sept, 19:28 UTC | 36% |
| 21 Sept, 18:34 UTC | 36% |
| 21 Sept, 12:56 UTC | 37% |
| 21 Sept, 10:03 UTC | 36% |
| 21 Sept, 08:08 UTC | 37% |
| 21 Sept, 07:28 UTC | 36% |
| 21 Sept, 06:57 UTC | 31% |
| 21 Sept, 06:19 UTC | 29% |
| 21 Sept, 05:55 UTC | 27% |
| 21 Sept, 03:42 UTC | 28% |
| 21 Sept, 02:55 UTC | 27% |
| 21 Sept, 02:27 UTC | 26% |
| 21 Sept, 01:48 UTC | 25% |
| 21 Sept, 01:19 UTC | 27% |
| 21 Sept, 00:38 UTC | 26% |
| 21 Sept, 00:24 UTC | 26% |
| 20 Sept, 22:22 UTC | 22% |
| 20 Sept, 20:54 UTC | 22% |
| 20 Sept, 19:07 UTC | 23% |
| 20 Sept, 18:32 UTC | 24% |
| 20 Sept, 17:52 UTC | 25% |
| 20 Sept, 17:29 UTC | 25% |
| 20 Sept, 16:44 UTC | 24% |
| 20 Sept, 16:29 UTC | 24% |
| 20 Sept, 15:17 UTC | 26% |
| 19 Sept, 19:04 UTC | 35% |
| 19 Sept, 10:21 UTC | 35% |
| 19 Sept, 08:09 UTC | 36% |
| 17 Sept, 12:14 UTC | 36% |
| 17 Sept, 07:34 UTC | 36% |
| 16 Sept, 21:27 UTC | 35% |
| 15 Sept, 17:10 UTC | 36% |
| 15 Sept, 11:39 UTC | 37% |
| 15 Sept, 09:27 UTC | 36% |
| 15 Sept, 07:13 UTC | 36% |
| 15 Sept, 06:46 UTC | 36% |
Your call. How does this end?
Free, no money involved. Calls are scored against the market's price when you make them, so backing an underdog that wins scores most. Leaderboard · Your calls
Does the market have this right?
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What counts
The market resolves to Yes if no Atlantic storms reach hurricane strength between now and November 30, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET. It resolves to No if at least one storm hits that threshold during the same period. Readers often mistake the deadline or ignore the rule that an initial National Hurricane Center advisory counts even if later reports downgrade the storm.
Written from Polymarket's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Polymarket are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 37%
- No 64%
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