Will Meta have the best AI model at the end of September 2026?
Final probability 0%
24-hour volume$18
Total volume$490k
Liquidity$71k
Resolved30 Sept 2026
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 0% |
| 27 Sept, 07:48 UTC | 0% |
| 27 Sept, 06:03 UTC | 0% |
| 26 Sept, 17:32 UTC | 0% |
| 26 Sept, 16:56 UTC | 0% |
| 26 Sept, 15:31 UTC | 0% |
| 26 Sept, 09:24 UTC | 0% |
| 26 Sept, 06:48 UTC | 0% |
| 26 Sept, 06:16 UTC | 0% |
| 25 Sept, 21:27 UTC | 0% |
What counts
The market resolves to Yes if Meta owns the model with the highest rank on the arena.ai Text Arena leaderboard at 12:00 PM ET on September 30, 2026. Readers often mistake the date of the linked news story for the resolution deadline or check a different ranking source instead of the specified arena.ai page.
Written from Polymarket's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Polymarket are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 0%
- No 100%
View this market on Polymarket →