Amelia Earhart’s plane found by December 31, 2026?
Implied probability 3%
24-hour volume$60
Total volume$6k
Liquidity$4k
Resolves1 Jan 2027
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 3% |
| 20 Oct, 05:47 UTC | 3% |
| 19 Oct, 02:42 UTC | 12% |
| 18 Oct, 20:27 UTC | 11% |
| 18 Oct, 18:50 UTC | 10% |
| 18 Oct, 18:29 UTC | 11% |
| 18 Oct, 17:59 UTC | 11% |
| 18 Oct, 17:03 UTC | 12% |
| 18 Oct, 16:45 UTC | 14% |
| 18 Oct, 15:29 UTC | 14% |
| 17 Oct, 15:29 UTC | 7% |
Your call. How does this end?
Free, no money involved. Calls are scored against the market's price when you make them, so backing an underdog that wins scores most. Leaderboard · Your calls
Does the market have this right?
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What counts
The market resolves to "Yes" if an official public announcement confirms that a specific object is wreckage from Amelia Earhart's Lockheed Electra 10E before December 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET. The confirmation must come from the investigating team or institution and be based on physical evidence, not just resemblance to the aircraft.
Written from Polymarket's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Polymarket are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 3%
- No 97%
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