Will OpenAI have the best Text-to-Image AI at the end of October 2026?
Implied probability 87%−2
24-hour volume$334
Total volume$28k
Liquidity$999
Resolves31 Oct 2026
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 87% |
| 7 Oct, 11:03 UTC | 87% |
| 7 Oct, 10:50 UTC | 88% |
| 7 Oct, 00:35 UTC | 88% |
| 6 Oct, 00:35 UTC | 93% |
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What counts
The market resolves by checking the arena.ai Text-to-Image Leaderboard for the highest-ranked model at 12:00 PM ET on October 31, 2026. Only models with a visible rank count; those marked “AutoEval” are ignored. Readers often mistake the resolution source or miss the specific time and date of the check.
Written from Polymarket's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Polymarket are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 87%
- No 14%
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