France defaults on debt by December 31, 2027?
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 8% |
| 28 Oct, 01:35 UTC | 8% |
| 28 Oct, 01:14 UTC | 8% |
| 28 Oct, 00:53 UTC | 8% |
| 28 Oct, 00:21 UTC | 8% |
| 27 Oct, 23:45 UTC | 8% |
| 27 Oct, 22:58 UTC | 8% |
| 27 Oct, 22:23 UTC | 8% |
| 27 Oct, 21:26 UTC | 8% |
| 27 Oct, 20:46 UTC | 8% |
| 27 Oct, 20:03 UTC | 8% |
| 27 Oct, 19:55 UTC | 8% |
| 27 Oct, 19:11 UTC | 13% |
| 27 Oct, 18:56 UTC | 13% |
| 27 Oct, 17:28 UTC | 14% |
| 27 Oct, 16:52 UTC | 15% |
| 27 Oct, 16:15 UTC | 15% |
| 27 Oct, 15:49 UTC | 15% |
| 27 Oct, 15:27 UTC | 15% |
| 27 Oct, 14:43 UTC | 15% |
| 27 Oct, 14:29 UTC | 14% |
| 27 Oct, 13:57 UTC | 16% |
| 27 Oct, 13:26 UTC | 17% |
| 27 Oct, 12:57 UTC | 17% |
| 27 Oct, 12:08 UTC | 18% |
| 27 Oct, 11:30 UTC | 17% |
| 27 Oct, 11:03 UTC | 17% |
| 27 Oct, 10:56 UTC | 16% |
| 27 Oct, 10:27 UTC | 17% |
| 27 Oct, 09:51 UTC | 17% |
| 27 Oct, 09:22 UTC | 16% |
| 27 Oct, 08:54 UTC | 16% |
| 27 Oct, 08:27 UTC | 13% |
| 27 Oct, 07:57 UTC | 14% |
| 27 Oct, 07:17 UTC | 14% |
| 27 Oct, 06:56 UTC | 16% |
| 27 Oct, 06:26 UTC | 18% |
| 27 Oct, 00:10 UTC | 7% |
| 26 Oct, 22:37 UTC | 7% |
| 26 Oct, 21:45 UTC | 7% |
| 25 Oct, 21:45 UTC | 6% |
Your call. How does this end?
Free, no money involved. Calls are scored against the market's price when you make them, so backing an underdog that wins scores most. Leaderboard · Your calls
Does the market have this right?
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What counts
The market resolves to Yes if the French government misses a scheduled debt payment or if S&P, Moody’s, or Fitch publicly declare its sovereign debt in default before December 31, 2027, at 11:59 PM ET. It resolves to No if no such event occurs by that deadline. Readers often mistake credit rating downgrades for defaults; only a public classification of 'default' by the specified agencies counts.
Written from Polymarket's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Polymarket are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 8%
- No 92%
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