Will the next governing coalition of New Zealand include Labour + Green?
Why it moved: −4 points at 06:47 UTC, after Al Jazeera – Breaking News, World News and Video from Al Jazeera: New Zealand braces for knife-edge election: What you need to know — the latest article on its stories before the jump; what followed, not what caused it.
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 17% |
| 5 Nov, 09:19 UTC | 17% |
| 5 Nov, 07:09 UTC | 16% |
| 5 Nov, 06:47 UTC | 16% |
| 4 Nov, 06:47 UTC | 20% |
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What counts
The market resolves to Yes if the first governing coalition formed after the November 7, 2026 election includes both Labour and Green parties as members who hold at least one Cabinet minister each. It resolves to No if either party is excluded from the cabinet or if they only provide external support without holding a ministerial post.
Written from Polymarket's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Polymarket are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 17%
- No 83%
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