Will Recep Tayyip Erdoğan be the next leader out before 2027?
Implied probability 0%
24-hour volume$461
Total volume$64k
Liquidity$26k
Resolves1 Jan 2027
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 0% |
| 1 Nov, 10:14 UTC | 0% |
| 1 Nov, 03:04 UTC | 0% |
| 31 Oct, 17:49 UTC | 0% |
| 31 Oct, 13:09 UTC | 0% |
| 30 Oct, 11:10 UTC | 0% |
| 29 Oct, 02:06 UTC | 0% |
| 28 Oct, 16:10 UTC | 0% |
| 28 Oct, 15:03 UTC | 0% |
| 27 Oct, 08:13 UTC | 0% |
| 27 Oct, 05:54 UTC | 0% |
| 26 Oct, 23:10 UTC | 0% |
| 26 Oct, 21:25 UTC | 0% |
| 26 Oct, 13:47 UTC | 0% |
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What counts
The market resolves to Yes if Recep Tayyip Erdoğan permanently leaves his office before December 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET. Temporary suspensions, caretaker roles, or mere resignation announcements do not count as permanent removal. Readers often mistake the deadline for the end of 2027, but the cutoff is actually the end of 2026.
Written from Polymarket's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Polymarket are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 0%
- No 100%
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