Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of September 2026?
Final probability 0%
24-hour volume$20k
Total volume$819k
Liquidity$65k
Resolved30 Sept 2026
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 0% |
| 1 Oct, 01:27 UTC | 0% |
| 30 Sept, 11:03 UTC | 0% |
| 30 Sept, 09:44 UTC | 0% |
| 30 Sept, 07:29 UTC | 0% |
| 30 Sept, 06:05 UTC | 0% |
| 30 Sept, 02:21 UTC | 0% |
| 29 Sept, 21:17 UTC | 0% |
| 29 Sept, 16:31 UTC | 0% |
| 29 Sept, 15:24 UTC | 0% |
| 29 Sept, 11:56 UTC | 0% |
| 29 Sept, 08:13 UTC | 0% |
| 29 Sept, 07:40 UTC | 0% |
| 29 Sept, 05:53 UTC | 0% |
| 28 Sept, 07:37 UTC | 0% |
| 28 Sept, 04:46 UTC | 0% |
| 27 Sept, 21:57 UTC | 0% |
| 27 Sept, 17:52 UTC | 0% |
| 27 Sept, 16:16 UTC | 0% |
| 27 Sept, 12:47 UTC | 0% |
| 27 Sept, 12:01 UTC | 0% |
| 27 Sept, 10:30 UTC | 0% |
| 27 Sept, 02:39 UTC | 0% |
| 26 Sept, 19:56 UTC | 0% |
| 26 Sept, 16:56 UTC | 0% |
| 26 Sept, 15:31 UTC | 0% |
| 26 Sept, 15:15 UTC | 0% |
What counts
The outcome depends on which company owns the top-ranked model on the arena.ai Text Arena leaderboard at 12:00 PM ET on September 30, 2026. Readers often mistake the date for the end of the month or overlook that style control must be off when checking the data.
Written from Polymarket's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Polymarket are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 0%
- No 100%
View this market on Polymarket →