Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by November 30?
Implied probability 22%
24-hour volume$27
Total volume$151k
Liquidity$58k
Resolves1 Dec 2026
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 22% |
| 23 Oct, 08:46 UTC | 22% |
| 22 Oct, 21:16 UTC | 22% |
| 22 Oct, 16:54 UTC | 23% |
| 22 Oct, 12:43 UTC | 22% |
| 22 Oct, 11:07 UTC | 23% |
| 22 Oct, 07:54 UTC | 22% |
| 22 Oct, 02:19 UTC | 23% |
| 21 Oct, 19:24 UTC | 23% |
| 21 Oct, 18:12 UTC | 25% |
| 21 Oct, 09:26 UTC | 27% |
| 21 Oct, 06:58 UTC | 28% |
| 21 Oct, 04:12 UTC | 27% |
| 20 Oct, 22:24 UTC | 28% |
| 20 Oct, 21:56 UTC | 28% |
| 20 Oct, 21:27 UTC | 30% |
| 20 Oct, 20:58 UTC | 24% |
| 20 Oct, 16:41 UTC | 27% |
| 20 Oct, 15:51 UTC | 26% |
| 20 Oct, 15:16 UTC | 28% |
| 20 Oct, 12:32 UTC | 27% |
| 20 Oct, 12:02 UTC | 26% |
| 20 Oct, 11:36 UTC | 26% |
| 20 Oct, 05:47 UTC | 22% |
Your call. How does this end?
Free, no money involved. Calls are scored against the market's price when you make them, so backing an underdog that wins scores most. Leaderboard · Your calls
Does the market have this right?
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What counts
The market resolves to Yes if Iran and Oman jointly announce acceptance of a specific diplomatic agreement managing shipping traffic in the Strait of Hormuz by November 30 at 11:59 PM ET. The announcement must clearly confirm that both countries accept the same deal, rather than just expressing support or discussing ongoing negotiations.
Written from Polymarket's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Polymarket are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 22%
- No 79%
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