Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on November 2?
Why it moved: +5 points at 09:22 UTC, after News - South China Morning Post: El Nino, weak monsoon behind Hong Kong’s warmest October in 142 years — the latest article on its stories before the jump; what followed, not what caused it.
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 43% |
| 1 Nov, 13:24 UTC | 42% |
| 1 Nov, 12:48 UTC | 43% |
| 1 Nov, 12:16 UTC | 43% |
| 1 Nov, 11:48 UTC | 42% |
| 1 Nov, 11:26 UTC | 42% |
| 1 Nov, 10:57 UTC | 44% |
| 1 Nov, 10:28 UTC | 44% |
| 1 Nov, 09:42 UTC | 46% |
| 1 Nov, 09:22 UTC | 47% |
| 31 Oct, 09:22 UTC | 42% |
Your call. How does this end?
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What counts
The market resolves based on the highest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory on November 2, 2026. 'Yes' requires that specific daily maximum to reach exactly 30°C, while 'No' covers all other values. Readers often mistake the linked story about October's record for the relevant data or ignore the strict cutoff of the initial publication date.
Written from Polymarket's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Polymarket are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 43%
- No 57%
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