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Will NVIDIA be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?

Implied probability 54%−3
24-hour volume$255
Total volume$45k
Liquidity$16k
Resolves1 Jan 2027
How the odds moved · Will NVIDIA be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?
0%50%100%54%30 Oct, 10:28 UTCnow
Price data
TimeChance of yes
now54%
6 Nov, 06:35 UTC54%
6 Nov, 00:20 UTC54%
5 Nov, 23:51 UTC52%
5 Nov, 23:29 UTC51%
5 Nov, 21:26 UTC50%
5 Nov, 20:42 UTC50%
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5 Nov, 18:28 UTC49%
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5 Nov, 15:57 UTC60%
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5 Nov, 14:56 UTC62%
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5 Nov, 10:39 UTC57%
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5 Nov, 06:33 UTC57%
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5 Nov, 03:51 UTC58%
5 Nov, 03:08 UTC54%
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5 Nov, 00:16 UTC52%
4 Nov, 23:54 UTC53%
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4 Nov, 22:49 UTC53%
4 Nov, 22:13 UTC54%
4 Nov, 21:58 UTC55%
4 Nov, 21:26 UTC49%
4 Nov, 20:52 UTC44%
4 Nov, 17:42 UTC41%
4 Nov, 17:20 UTC43%
4 Nov, 16:57 UTC44%
4 Nov, 16:27 UTC44%
4 Nov, 15:58 UTC42%
4 Nov, 15:28 UTC42%
4 Nov, 14:59 UTC43%
4 Nov, 14:16 UTC33%
4 Nov, 13:53 UTC32%
4 Nov, 13:02 UTC31%
4 Nov, 12:54 UTC30%
4 Nov, 11:32 UTC30%
4 Nov, 11:12 UTC30%
4 Nov, 10:05 UTC31%
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4 Nov, 08:53 UTC30%
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4 Nov, 06:50 UTC30%
4 Nov, 03:18 UTC31%
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4 Nov, 01:49 UTC31%
3 Nov, 23:31 UTC31%
3 Nov, 21:49 UTC31%
3 Nov, 16:47 UTC30%
3 Nov, 12:07 UTC31%
3 Nov, 11:52 UTC31%
3 Nov, 10:09 UTC38%
3 Nov, 08:39 UTC37%
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3 Nov, 07:26 UTC36%
3 Nov, 05:54 UTC36%
3 Nov, 04:15 UTC35%
3 Nov, 03:33 UTC36%
3 Nov, 02:30 UTC35%
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3 Nov, 01:17 UTC34%
3 Nov, 00:48 UTC34%
2 Nov, 22:31 UTC34%
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2 Nov, 20:08 UTC37%
2 Nov, 19:54 UTC36%
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2 Nov, 14:33 UTC38%
2 Nov, 11:29 UTC42%
2 Nov, 10:07 UTC43%
2 Nov, 09:45 UTC42%
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2 Nov, 06:00 UTC43%
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1 Nov, 23:43 UTC45%
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1 Nov, 20:21 UTC44%
1 Nov, 19:02 UTC44%
1 Nov, 16:58 UTC45%
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1 Nov, 15:08 UTC44%
1 Nov, 14:23 UTC44%
1 Nov, 13:54 UTC44%
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1 Nov, 11:55 UTC44%
1 Nov, 11:19 UTC44%
1 Nov, 10:57 UTC44%
1 Nov, 10:28 UTC45%
1 Nov, 09:50 UTC45%
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1 Nov, 08:54 UTC44%
1 Nov, 08:25 UTC44%
1 Nov, 07:45 UTC45%
1 Nov, 07:25 UTC44%
1 Nov, 06:50 UTC44%
1 Nov, 06:15 UTC44%
1 Nov, 04:43 UTC44%
1 Nov, 04:15 UTC46%
1 Nov, 03:40 UTC46%
1 Nov, 03:19 UTC47%
1 Nov, 01:59 UTC47%
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1 Nov, 00:14 UTC47%
31 Oct, 23:53 UTC45%
31 Oct, 23:17 UTC44%
31 Oct, 22:57 UTC44%
31 Oct, 22:28 UTC44%
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31 Oct, 16:58 UTC43%
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31 Oct, 15:22 UTC43%
31 Oct, 14:53 UTC43%
31 Oct, 14:24 UTC42%
31 Oct, 13:53 UTC44%
31 Oct, 13:23 UTC44%
31 Oct, 12:54 UTC43%
31 Oct, 12:25 UTC44%
31 Oct, 11:50 UTC43%
31 Oct, 11:28 UTC44%
31 Oct, 10:59 UTC43%
31 Oct, 09:52 UTC43%
31 Oct, 09:24 UTC43%
31 Oct, 08:49 UTC43%
31 Oct, 08:21 UTC44%
31 Oct, 07:25 UTC44%
31 Oct, 06:29 UTC44%
31 Oct, 05:47 UTC43%
31 Oct, 04:43 UTC44%
31 Oct, 04:14 UTC44%
31 Oct, 03:52 UTC45%
31 Oct, 03:24 UTC46%
31 Oct, 02:47 UTC45%
31 Oct, 01:32 UTC45%
31 Oct, 01:25 UTC45%
31 Oct, 00:24 UTC45%
30 Oct, 23:41 UTC44%
30 Oct, 23:23 UTC44%
30 Oct, 22:47 UTC43%
30 Oct, 22:26 UTC43%
30 Oct, 21:53 UTC44%
30 Oct, 21:24 UTC43%
30 Oct, 20:44 UTC43%
30 Oct, 20:29 UTC43%
30 Oct, 19:53 UTC43%
30 Oct, 19:27 UTC43%
30 Oct, 18:58 UTC44%
30 Oct, 18:18 UTC45%
30 Oct, 17:56 UTC43%
30 Oct, 17:20 UTC43%
30 Oct, 16:32 UTC45%
30 Oct, 16:18 UTC44%
30 Oct, 15:50 UTC46%
30 Oct, 15:28 UTC46%
30 Oct, 14:58 UTC45%
30 Oct, 14:23 UTC45%
30 Oct, 13:58 UTC46%
30 Oct, 13:13 UTC46%
30 Oct, 12:59 UTC45%
30 Oct, 11:59 UTC45%
30 Oct, 11:24 UTC46%
30 Oct, 10:50 UTC45%
30 Oct, 10:28 UTC45%

Your call. How does this end?

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What counts

NVIDIA must hold the second-highest market capitalization among all global companies at the exact moment the market closes on December 31, 2026. The outcome depends solely on that specific closing price data, not on intraday fluctuations or other dates. Readers often mistakenly check the company's value at any time during the day rather than waiting for the official market close.

Written from Polymarket's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Polymarket are what decides it.

Outcomes

  • Yes 54%
  • No 47%

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