Will the U.S. 30-year Fixed-Rate Mortgage hit 7.00% (HIGH) by December 31, 2026?
The market favoured Yes at 90% a day out, and it won. How often it's right
Final probability 100%
24-hour volume$2k
Total volume$8k
Liquidity$2k
Resolved15 Jan 2027
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 100% |
| 24 Sept, 18:41 UTC | 100% |
| 23 Sept, 18:41 UTC | 90% |
What counts
The market resolves to Yes if Freddie Mac reports a rate of 7.00% or higher in any weekly survey ending on or before December 31, 2026. It resolves to No if that threshold is never reached by the final published data for that period. Readers often mistake the linked news headline as proof of resolution, but only Freddie Mac's official weekly Primary Mortgage Market Survey counts.
Written from Polymarket's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Polymarket are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 100%
- No 0%
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