Quebec General Election: PQ Wins a Majority?
Why it moved: −18 points at 22:28 UTC, after France 24 - International breaking news, top stories and headlines: Quebec votes as separatist surge poses test for Canada PM — the latest article on its stories before the jump; what followed, not what caused it.
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 33% |
| 5 Oct, 23:36 UTC | 33% |
| 5 Oct, 22:49 UTC | 32% |
| 5 Oct, 22:28 UTC | 31% |
| 4 Oct, 22:21 UTC | 49% |
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What counts
The Yes outcome occurs if the Parti Québécois wins at least 64 of the 127 National Assembly seats in the October 5, 2026 election. The No outcome applies if the party wins fewer than 64 seats or if definitive results are not known by March 31, 2027.
Written from Polymarket's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Polymarket are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 33%
- No 67%
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