Iran charges Hormuz fees by October 31?
Implied probability 4%
24-hour volume$1k
Total volume$701k
Liquidity$31k
Resolves1 Nov 2026
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 4% |
| 28 Oct, 01:14 UTC | 4% |
| 27 Oct, 23:45 UTC | 4% |
| 27 Oct, 23:19 UTC | 4% |
| 27 Oct, 22:58 UTC | 4% |
| 27 Oct, 20:24 UTC | 4% |
| 27 Oct, 19:34 UTC | 4% |
| 27 Oct, 19:19 UTC | 4% |
| 27 Oct, 18:12 UTC | 4% |
| 27 Oct, 17:28 UTC | 4% |
| 27 Oct, 16:52 UTC | 4% |
| 27 Oct, 16:15 UTC | 5% |
| 27 Oct, 14:36 UTC | 5% |
| 27 Oct, 14:29 UTC | 5% |
| 27 Oct, 13:57 UTC | 5% |
| 27 Oct, 13:26 UTC | 4% |
| 27 Oct, 12:33 UTC | 4% |
| 27 Oct, 12:15 UTC | 4% |
| 27 Oct, 11:37 UTC | 4% |
| 27 Oct, 11:22 UTC | 4% |
| 27 Oct, 09:30 UTC | 4% |
| 27 Oct, 07:51 UTC | 4% |
| 27 Oct, 06:26 UTC | 4% |
| 27 Oct, 04:13 UTC | 4% |
| 26 Oct, 23:24 UTC | 4% |
| 26 Oct, 21:45 UTC | 4% |
| 26 Oct, 18:48 UTC | 4% |
| 26 Oct, 18:26 UTC | 4% |
| 26 Oct, 17:45 UTC | 4% |
| 26 Oct, 17:28 UTC | 4% |
| 26 Oct, 16:51 UTC | 4% |
| 26 Oct, 16:24 UTC | 4% |
| 26 Oct, 15:54 UTC | 4% |
| 26 Oct, 15:17 UTC | 5% |
| 26 Oct, 14:47 UTC | 4% |
| 26 Oct, 14:23 UTC | 5% |
| 26 Oct, 13:38 UTC | 4% |
| 26 Oct, 13:13 UTC | 4% |
| 26 Oct, 12:47 UTC | 4% |
| 26 Oct, 12:25 UTC | 4% |
| 26 Oct, 11:56 UTC | 4% |
| 26 Oct, 11:03 UTC | 4% |
| 26 Oct, 10:34 UTC | 4% |
| 26 Oct, 08:02 UTC | 4% |
| 26 Oct, 07:06 UTC | 4% |
| 26 Oct, 06:51 UTC | 4% |
| 26 Oct, 06:27 UTC | 4% |
| 26 Oct, 05:53 UTC | 4% |
| 26 Oct, 04:43 UTC | 4% |
| 26 Oct, 04:04 UTC | 4% |
| 26 Oct, 03:57 UTC | 4% |
| 26 Oct, 03:20 UTC | 4% |
| 26 Oct, 02:34 UTC | 4% |
| 26 Oct, 02:20 UTC | 4% |
| 26 Oct, 01:52 UTC | 4% |
| 26 Oct, 01:27 UTC | 4% |
| 26 Oct, 00:54 UTC | 4% |
| 25 Oct, 23:25 UTC | 2% |
| 25 Oct, 22:20 UTC | 2% |
| 25 Oct, 20:05 UTC | 2% |
| 25 Oct, 19:11 UTC | 2% |
| 25 Oct, 18:50 UTC | 2% |
| 25 Oct, 17:17 UTC | 2% |
| 25 Oct, 13:17 UTC | 3% |
| 25 Oct, 12:56 UTC | 3% |
| 25 Oct, 11:21 UTC | 3% |
| 25 Oct, 10:42 UTC | 3% |
| 25 Oct, 09:58 UTC | 3% |
| 25 Oct, 09:14 UTC | 3% |
| 25 Oct, 08:07 UTC | 3% |
| 25 Oct, 07:39 UTC | 3% |
| 25 Oct, 07:11 UTC | 3% |
| 25 Oct, 06:12 UTC | 3% |
| 25 Oct, 05:51 UTC | 2% |
| 25 Oct, 05:17 UTC | 3% |
| 25 Oct, 04:56 UTC | 4% |
| 25 Oct, 04:12 UTC | 5% |
| 25 Oct, 03:58 UTC | 5% |
| 25 Oct, 03:23 UTC | 5% |
| 25 Oct, 02:56 UTC | 5% |
| 25 Oct, 02:28 UTC | 5% |
| 25 Oct, 01:08 UTC | 5% |
| 25 Oct, 00:58 UTC | 5% |
| 25 Oct, 00:29 UTC | 5% |
| 24 Oct, 23:48 UTC | 5% |
| 24 Oct, 23:26 UTC | 5% |
| 24 Oct, 22:58 UTC | 4% |
| 24 Oct, 22:26 UTC | 4% |
| 24 Oct, 21:51 UTC | 4% |
| 24 Oct, 21:19 UTC | 4% |
| 24 Oct, 20:58 UTC | 4% |
| 24 Oct, 20:23 UTC | 4% |
| 24 Oct, 19:58 UTC | 4% |
| 24 Oct, 19:23 UTC | 4% |
| 24 Oct, 18:43 UTC | 4% |
| 24 Oct, 18:29 UTC | 4% |
| 24 Oct, 17:54 UTC | 4% |
| 24 Oct, 17:29 UTC | 4% |
| 24 Oct, 16:54 UTC | 4% |
| 24 Oct, 16:22 UTC | 4% |
| 24 Oct, 15:41 UTC | 4% |
| 24 Oct, 15:27 UTC | 4% |
| 24 Oct, 14:54 UTC | 4% |
| 24 Oct, 14:12 UTC | 4% |
| 24 Oct, 13:52 UTC | 4% |
| 24 Oct, 13:29 UTC | 4% |
| 24 Oct, 12:25 UTC | 4% |
| 24 Oct, 11:57 UTC | 4% |
| 24 Oct, 09:50 UTC | 4% |
| 24 Oct, 07:17 UTC | 3% |
| 24 Oct, 06:58 UTC | 3% |
| 24 Oct, 04:25 UTC | 3% |
| 24 Oct, 03:42 UTC | 3% |
| 24 Oct, 01:48 UTC | 3% |
| 24 Oct, 01:25 UTC | 3% |
| 23 Oct, 21:27 UTC | 4% |
| 23 Oct, 20:49 UTC | 5% |
| 23 Oct, 18:56 UTC | 5% |
| 23 Oct, 16:36 UTC | 8% |
| 23 Oct, 12:22 UTC | 7% |
| 23 Oct, 06:39 UTC | 8% |
| 22 Oct, 23:55 UTC | 8% |
| 22 Oct, 23:13 UTC | 8% |
| 22 Oct, 22:32 UTC | 8% |
| 22 Oct, 21:37 UTC | 8% |
| 22 Oct, 20:13 UTC | 8% |
| 22 Oct, 19:58 UTC | 8% |
| 22 Oct, 12:43 UTC | 8% |
| 22 Oct, 12:00 UTC | 8% |
| 22 Oct, 06:15 UTC | 8% |
| 22 Oct, 05:18 UTC | 7% |
| 22 Oct, 00:59 UTC | 7% |
| 21 Oct, 18:27 UTC | 6% |
| 21 Oct, 14:05 UTC | 6% |
| 21 Oct, 13:40 UTC | 6% |
| 21 Oct, 13:04 UTC | 5% |
| 21 Oct, 12:56 UTC | 5% |
| 21 Oct, 11:24 UTC | 5% |
| 21 Oct, 10:03 UTC | 5% |
| 21 Oct, 09:19 UTC | 4% |
| 21 Oct, 07:29 UTC | 5% |
| 21 Oct, 06:37 UTC | 4% |
| 21 Oct, 06:23 UTC | 5% |
| 21 Oct, 05:48 UTC | 4% |
| 21 Oct, 04:04 UTC | 6% |
Your call. How does this end?
Free, no money involved. Calls are scored against the market's price when you make them, so backing an underdog that wins scores most. Leaderboard · Your calls
Does the market have this right?
Email me when the odds move
What counts
The market resolves to Yes if Iran officially announces a mandatory fee for commercial vessels passing through the Strait of Hormuz and credible reports confirm that collection has started before October 31 at 11:59 PM ET. It resolves to No if this specific combination of announcement and active collection does not occur within that timeframe.
Written from Polymarket's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Polymarket are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 4%
- No 96%
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