Will Likud win fewer than 20 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?
Implied probability 15%
24-hour volume$495
Total volume$92k
Liquidity$50k
Resolves28 Oct 2026
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 15% |
| 9 Oct, 15:48 UTC | 15% |
| 9 Oct, 14:31 UTC | 15% |
| 9 Oct, 14:09 UTC | 15% |
| 9 Oct, 13:35 UTC | 15% |
| 9 Oct, 13:28 UTC | 15% |
| 9 Oct, 12:38 UTC | 15% |
| 9 Oct, 12:16 UTC | 15% |
| 9 Oct, 11:36 UTC | 15% |
| 9 Oct, 09:20 UTC | 15% |
| 9 Oct, 08:55 UTC | 15% |
| 9 Oct, 08:09 UTC | 15% |
| 9 Oct, 06:18 UTC | 15% |
| 9 Oct, 05:27 UTC | 15% |
| 9 Oct, 01:16 UTC | 16% |
| 9 Oct, 00:16 UTC | 16% |
| 8 Oct, 22:02 UTC | 16% |
| 8 Oct, 21:56 UTC | 16% |
| 8 Oct, 20:41 UTC | 16% |
| 8 Oct, 20:12 UTC | 16% |
| 8 Oct, 19:58 UTC | 16% |
| 8 Oct, 18:46 UTC | 15% |
| 8 Oct, 17:34 UTC | 15% |
| 8 Oct, 16:30 UTC | 15% |
| 8 Oct, 16:01 UTC | 15% |
| 8 Oct, 15:36 UTC | 15% |
| 8 Oct, 15:21 UTC | 15% |
| 8 Oct, 11:11 UTC | 15% |
| 8 Oct, 10:38 UTC | 16% |
| 8 Oct, 10:23 UTC | 14% |
| 8 Oct, 09:59 UTC | 14% |
| 8 Oct, 09:23 UTC | 14% |
| 8 Oct, 08:42 UTC | 14% |
| 8 Oct, 08:24 UTC | 14% |
| 8 Oct, 07:45 UTC | 16% |
| 8 Oct, 07:06 UTC | 16% |
| 8 Oct, 06:46 UTC | 16% |
| 8 Oct, 05:52 UTC | 16% |
| 8 Oct, 05:23 UTC | 16% |
| 8 Oct, 04:37 UTC | 16% |
| 8 Oct, 04:23 UTC | 16% |
| 8 Oct, 03:29 UTC | 16% |
| 8 Oct, 02:09 UTC | 18% |
| 8 Oct, 01:42 UTC | 18% |
| 8 Oct, 00:34 UTC | 18% |
| 8 Oct, 00:27 UTC | 17% |
| 7 Oct, 23:46 UTC | 18% |
| 7 Oct, 23:04 UTC | 18% |
| 7 Oct, 22:58 UTC | 18% |
| 7 Oct, 22:05 UTC | 18% |
| 7 Oct, 21:44 UTC | 18% |
| 7 Oct, 20:50 UTC | 18% |
| 7 Oct, 20:22 UTC | 18% |
| 7 Oct, 19:35 UTC | 18% |
| 7 Oct, 19:20 UTC | 18% |
| 7 Oct, 18:13 UTC | 18% |
| 7 Oct, 17:09 UTC | 18% |
| 7 Oct, 16:15 UTC | 18% |
| 7 Oct, 15:34 UTC | 18% |
| 7 Oct, 15:24 UTC | 18% |
| 7 Oct, 14:11 UTC | 18% |
| 7 Oct, 13:33 UTC | 18% |
| 7 Oct, 13:12 UTC | 18% |
| 7 Oct, 12:58 UTC | 18% |
| 7 Oct, 10:44 UTC | 18% |
| 7 Oct, 10:22 UTC | 18% |
| 7 Oct, 09:03 UTC | 18% |
| 7 Oct, 08:40 UTC | 18% |
| 7 Oct, 07:20 UTC | 18% |
| 6 Oct, 20:30 UTC | 19% |
| 6 Oct, 17:53 UTC | 19% |
| 6 Oct, 14:37 UTC | 16% |
| 6 Oct, 12:34 UTC | 16% |
| 6 Oct, 11:13 UTC | 16% |
| 6 Oct, 10:25 UTC | 15% |
| 6 Oct, 09:48 UTC | 14% |
| 6 Oct, 08:29 UTC | 19% |
| 6 Oct, 07:57 UTC | 19% |
| 6 Oct, 07:19 UTC | 19% |
| 6 Oct, 06:53 UTC | 19% |
| 6 Oct, 04:02 UTC | 21% |
| 6 Oct, 02:56 UTC | 21% |
| 5 Oct, 23:16 UTC | 21% |
| 5 Oct, 22:49 UTC | 22% |
| 5 Oct, 22:01 UTC | 22% |
| 5 Oct, 21:54 UTC | 22% |
| 5 Oct, 20:31 UTC | 24% |
| 5 Oct, 20:17 UTC | 23% |
| 5 Oct, 19:56 UTC | 22% |
| 5 Oct, 19:14 UTC | 23% |
| 5 Oct, 18:14 UTC | 23% |
| 5 Oct, 17:59 UTC | 23% |
| 5 Oct, 14:24 UTC | 23% |
| 5 Oct, 13:05 UTC | 23% |
| 5 Oct, 12:50 UTC | 23% |
| 5 Oct, 11:30 UTC | 23% |
| 5 Oct, 11:07 UTC | 23% |
| 5 Oct, 10:54 UTC | 23% |
| 5 Oct, 10:28 UTC | 24% |
| 5 Oct, 09:53 UTC | 23% |
| 5 Oct, 08:22 UTC | 24% |
| 5 Oct, 06:36 UTC | 24% |
| 5 Oct, 04:59 UTC | 24% |
| 5 Oct, 04:13 UTC | 24% |
| 5 Oct, 03:52 UTC | 24% |
| 5 Oct, 02:40 UTC | 24% |
| 5 Oct, 00:56 UTC | 24% |
| 4 Oct, 22:50 UTC | 24% |
| 4 Oct, 22:24 UTC | 24% |
| 4 Oct, 21:50 UTC | 24% |
| 4 Oct, 20:58 UTC | 24% |
| 4 Oct, 19:28 UTC | 24% |
| 4 Oct, 17:54 UTC | 23% |
| 4 Oct, 11:36 UTC | 23% |
| 4 Oct, 11:04 UTC | 23% |
| 4 Oct, 09:15 UTC | 23% |
| 4 Oct, 08:43 UTC | 24% |
| 4 Oct, 06:46 UTC | 24% |
| 4 Oct, 06:20 UTC | 24% |
| 4 Oct, 05:30 UTC | 24% |
| 4 Oct, 05:04 UTC | 24% |
| 4 Oct, 04:07 UTC | 24% |
| 4 Oct, 01:33 UTC | 24% |
| 4 Oct, 01:26 UTC | 24% |
| 4 Oct, 00:47 UTC | 24% |
| 4 Oct, 00:28 UTC | 25% |
| 3 Oct, 23:55 UTC | 26% |
| 3 Oct, 23:22 UTC | 26% |
| 3 Oct, 21:57 UTC | 27% |
| 3 Oct, 20:43 UTC | 27% |
| 3 Oct, 19:36 UTC | 27% |
| 3 Oct, 18:29 UTC | 27% |
| 3 Oct, 17:21 UTC | 27% |
| 3 Oct, 16:53 UTC | 27% |
| 3 Oct, 15:54 UTC | 27% |
| 3 Oct, 15:20 UTC | 27% |
| 3 Oct, 14:34 UTC | 28% |
Your call. How does this end?
Free, no money involved. Calls are scored against the market's price when you make them, so backing an underdog that wins scores most. Leaderboard · Your calls
Does the market have this right?
Email me when the odds move
What counts
The market resolves to Yes if Likud wins fewer than 20 seats in the October 27, 2026 election, and No otherwise. Seats won by a joint list or merged party count toward Likud's total. Readers often mistake the October 31, 2027 deadline for the resolution date instead of the cutoff for definitive results.
Written from Polymarket's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Polymarket are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 15%
- No 85%
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