Will the Republicans win the Pennsylvania governor race in 2026?
The market favoured No at 99% a day out, and it won. How often it's right
Final probability 0%
24-hour volume$53k
Total volume$134k
Liquidity$64k
Resolved4 Nov 2026
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 0% |
| 4 Nov, 03:55 UTC | 1% |
| 4 Nov, 03:18 UTC | 0% |
| 4 Nov, 02:49 UTC | 0% |
| 4 Nov, 02:26 UTC | 0% |
| 4 Nov, 01:13 UTC | 0% |
| 4 Nov, 00:43 UTC | 1% |
| 3 Nov, 23:46 UTC | 1% |
| 3 Nov, 22:56 UTC | 2% |
| 3 Nov, 22:19 UTC | 1% |
| 3 Nov, 21:57 UTC | 2% |
| 3 Nov, 20:12 UTC | 2% |
| 3 Nov, 19:06 UTC | 2% |
| 3 Nov, 18:13 UTC | 2% |
| 3 Nov, 17:51 UTC | 2% |
| 3 Nov, 17:17 UTC | 1% |
| 3 Nov, 15:29 UTC | 1% |
| 3 Nov, 14:53 UTC | 1% |
| 3 Nov, 14:25 UTC | 1% |
| 3 Nov, 13:48 UTC | 1% |
| 3 Nov, 13:25 UTC | 1% |
| 3 Nov, 09:06 UTC | 1% |
| 3 Nov, 07:05 UTC | 1% |
| 3 Nov, 05:04 UTC | 1% |
| 2 Nov, 23:01 UTC | 1% |
| 2 Nov, 22:54 UTC | 1% |
| 2 Nov, 22:17 UTC | 1% |
| 2 Nov, 21:48 UTC | 1% |
| 2 Nov, 21:12 UTC | 1% |
| 2 Nov, 20:30 UTC | 1% |
| 2 Nov, 18:49 UTC | 1% |
| 2 Nov, 16:12 UTC | 1% |
| 2 Nov, 15:56 UTC | 1% |
| 2 Nov, 14:49 UTC | 1% |
| 2 Nov, 14:11 UTC | 2% |
| 2 Nov, 13:41 UTC | 2% |
| 2 Nov, 13:18 UTC | 1% |
| 2 Nov, 00:40 UTC | 2% |
| 1 Nov, 23:50 UTC | 2% |
| 1 Nov, 23:29 UTC | 2% |
| 1 Nov, 22:53 UTC | 2% |
| 1 Nov, 22:24 UTC | 1% |
| 1 Nov, 19:30 UTC | 2% |
| 1 Nov, 19:02 UTC | 2% |
| 1 Nov, 15:46 UTC | 1% |
| 1 Nov, 12:09 UTC | 2% |
| 1 Nov, 10:14 UTC | 2% |
| 1 Nov, 07:04 UTC | 2% |
| 1 Nov, 05:04 UTC | 2% |
| 1 Nov, 01:24 UTC | 2% |
| 1 Nov, 00:14 UTC | 2% |
| 31 Oct, 23:53 UTC | 2% |
| 31 Oct, 22:50 UTC | 2% |
| 31 Oct, 19:32 UTC | 2% |
| 31 Oct, 18:48 UTC | 1% |
| 31 Oct, 18:11 UTC | 1% |
| 31 Oct, 17:57 UTC | 2% |
| 31 Oct, 17:21 UTC | 1% |
| 31 Oct, 16:29 UTC | 1% |
| 31 Oct, 12:11 UTC | 2% |
| 31 Oct, 10:52 UTC | 2% |
| 31 Oct, 08:49 UTC | 2% |
| 31 Oct, 06:29 UTC | 1% |
| 31 Oct, 05:47 UTC | 1% |
| 30 Oct, 23:48 UTC | 1% |
| 30 Oct, 22:26 UTC | 1% |
| 30 Oct, 18:58 UTC | 1% |
| 30 Oct, 18:18 UTC | 1% |
| 30 Oct, 16:32 UTC | 1% |
| 30 Oct, 16:25 UTC | 1% |
| 30 Oct, 15:43 UTC | 2% |
| 30 Oct, 15:21 UTC | 1% |
| 30 Oct, 14:58 UTC | 1% |
| 30 Oct, 12:06 UTC | 2% |
| 30 Oct, 11:45 UTC | 2% |
| 30 Oct, 11:24 UTC | 2% |
| 30 Oct, 10:28 UTC | 1% |
| 30 Oct, 09:58 UTC | 1% |
| 30 Oct, 09:22 UTC | 2% |
| 30 Oct, 07:28 UTC | 2% |
| 30 Oct, 06:56 UTC | 2% |
What counts
The Yes outcome occurs if the Republican nominee wins the 2026 Pennsylvania gubernatorial election. The No outcome applies if any other candidate wins. Readers often mistake the linked story about Chris Rabb for relevant information, but this market depends solely on the governor race result.
Written from Polymarket's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Polymarket are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 0%
- No 100%
View this market on Polymarket →