Will the Democrats win the Alabama governor race in 2026?
The market favoured No at 93% a day out, and it won. How often it's right
Final probability 0%
24-hour volume$21k
Total volume$52k
Liquidity$43k
Resolved4 Nov 2026
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 0% |
| 4 Nov, 03:55 UTC | 4% |
| 4 Nov, 03:26 UTC | 1% |
| 4 Nov, 02:56 UTC | 2% |
| 4 Nov, 02:19 UTC | 4% |
| 4 Nov, 01:57 UTC | 11% |
| 4 Nov, 01:27 UTC | 12% |
| 4 Nov, 00:58 UTC | 7% |
| 4 Nov, 00:29 UTC | 6% |
| 3 Nov, 23:53 UTC | 7% |
| 3 Nov, 23:24 UTC | 8% |
| 3 Nov, 22:56 UTC | 9% |
| 3 Nov, 22:19 UTC | 8% |
| 3 Nov, 21:57 UTC | 9% |
| 3 Nov, 21:03 UTC | 9% |
| 3 Nov, 20:56 UTC | 8% |
| 3 Nov, 20:12 UTC | 7% |
| 3 Nov, 19:57 UTC | 7% |
| 3 Nov, 19:29 UTC | 8% |
| 3 Nov, 18:44 UTC | 8% |
| 3 Nov, 18:29 UTC | 8% |
| 3 Nov, 17:58 UTC | 7% |
| 3 Nov, 17:26 UTC | 6% |
| 3 Nov, 16:55 UTC | 7% |
| 3 Nov, 16:26 UTC | 6% |
| 3 Nov, 15:57 UTC | 6% |
| 3 Nov, 15:14 UTC | 6% |
| 3 Nov, 14:32 UTC | 7% |
| 3 Nov, 14:25 UTC | 7% |
| 3 Nov, 13:55 UTC | 7% |
| 3 Nov, 13:04 UTC | 7% |
| 3 Nov, 10:52 UTC | 7% |
| 3 Nov, 09:54 UTC | 7% |
| 3 Nov, 09:27 UTC | 7% |
| 3 Nov, 08:46 UTC | 7% |
| 3 Nov, 08:17 UTC | 7% |
| 3 Nov, 07:48 UTC | 6% |
| 3 Nov, 05:19 UTC | 7% |
| 3 Nov, 04:57 UTC | 7% |
| 3 Nov, 04:22 UTC | 6% |
| 3 Nov, 03:47 UTC | 6% |
| 3 Nov, 02:51 UTC | 6% |
| 3 Nov, 02:23 UTC | 6% |
| 3 Nov, 01:54 UTC | 6% |
| 3 Nov, 01:17 UTC | 6% |
| 3 Nov, 00:55 UTC | 6% |
| 3 Nov, 00:26 UTC | 6% |
| 2 Nov, 23:51 UTC | 6% |
| 2 Nov, 23:16 UTC | 6% |
| 2 Nov, 22:54 UTC | 6% |
| 2 Nov, 22:17 UTC | 6% |
| 2 Nov, 21:55 UTC | 6% |
| 2 Nov, 21:19 UTC | 6% |
| 2 Nov, 20:58 UTC | 6% |
| 2 Nov, 20:16 UTC | 6% |
| 2 Nov, 19:54 UTC | 5% |
| 2 Nov, 19:18 UTC | 6% |
| 2 Nov, 18:56 UTC | 6% |
| 2 Nov, 18:19 UTC | 6% |
| 2 Nov, 15:11 UTC | 6% |
| 2 Nov, 14:26 UTC | 6% |
| 2 Nov, 13:26 UTC | 6% |
| 2 Nov, 12:56 UTC | 6% |
| 2 Nov, 12:19 UTC | 5% |
| 2 Nov, 11:57 UTC | 5% |
| 2 Nov, 07:25 UTC | 5% |
| 2 Nov, 06:56 UTC | 5% |
| 2 Nov, 06:21 UTC | 5% |
| 2 Nov, 05:46 UTC | 5% |
| 2 Nov, 05:24 UTC | 5% |
What counts
The Yes outcome occurs if a Democratic nominee wins the 2026 Alabama gubernatorial election. The No outcome applies if any other candidate wins or if no candidate is declared the winner. Readers often mistake the deadline for resolution, which happens only when the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC all call the race for the same candidate, rather than on election night.
Written from Polymarket's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Polymarket are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 0%
- No 100%
View this market on Polymarket →