Will Anthropic reset Claude usage limit by October 31?
The market favoured Yes at 90% a day out, and it won. How often it's right
Final probability 100%
24-hour volume$3k
Total volume$7k
Liquidity$4k
Resolved1 Nov 2026
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 100% |
| 23 Sept, 08:11 UTC | 100% |
| 23 Sept, 06:07 UTC | 99% |
| 23 Sept, 05:13 UTC | 99% |
| 23 Sept, 04:54 UTC | 99% |
| 23 Sept, 04:08 UTC | 99% |
| 23 Sept, 03:22 UTC | 98% |
| 23 Sept, 02:45 UTC | 98% |
| 23 Sept, 02:18 UTC | 98% |
| 23 Sept, 01:59 UTC | 98% |
| 22 Sept, 23:21 UTC | 99% |
| 21 Sept, 23:21 UTC | 88% |
What counts
The market resolves to Yes if Anthropic takes discretionary action to zero or refill usage counters for paid subscription users before October 31 at 11:59 PM ET. Normal scheduled resets, temporary limit increases, and API rate limit changes do not count toward this outcome. Readers often mistake the release of a new model or standard pricing updates for a qualifying usage reset.
Written from Polymarket's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Polymarket are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 100%
- No 0%
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