Will Flávio Bolsonaro win 39% or more of the valid vote in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
Implied probability 86%−2
24-hour volume$616
Total volume$34k
Liquidity$26k
Resolves5 Oct 2026
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 86% |
| 22 Sept, 04:38 UTC | 86% |
| 22 Sept, 04:08 UTC | 86% |
| 22 Sept, 03:54 UTC | 86% |
| 22 Sept, 03:27 UTC | 86% |
| 21 Sept, 15:49 UTC | 87% |
| 21 Sept, 14:36 UTC | 87% |
| 21 Sept, 11:23 UTC | 88% |
| 21 Sept, 10:58 UTC | 87% |
| 20 Sept, 07:15 UTC | 88% |
| 17 Sept, 05:24 UTC | 69% |
Your call. How does this end?
Free, no money involved. Calls are scored against the market's price when you make them, so backing an underdog that wins scores most. Leaderboard · Your calls
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What counts
The market resolves to Yes if Flávio Bolsonaro receives 39% or more of the valid votes in the first round of the October 4, 2026 Brazilian presidential election. It resolves to No if he receives less than 39% of the valid votes. Readers often mistake the June 30, 2027 deadline for the election date rather than the final resolution cutoff.
Written from Polymarket's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Polymarket are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 86%
- No 14%
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