Will total votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Governor of California be between 12,500,000 and 13,000,000?
Why it moved: −7 points at 06:02 UTC, after Times of India: Two Indians among 28 green card holders charged with election fraud in California — the latest article on its stories before the jump; what followed, not what caused it.
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 32% |
| 20 Oct, 06:02 UTC | 32% |
| 19 Oct, 06:02 UTC | 40% |
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What counts
The market resolves based on the total number of valid votes cast in the 2026 California gubernatorial midterm election. The 'Yes' outcome occurs if that total falls between 12,500,000 and 13,000,000; otherwise, it resolves to 'No'. Readers often mistake the deadline for resolution, which is March 31, 2027, at 11:59 PM ET, rather than Election Day.
Written from Polymarket's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Polymarket are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 32%
- No 68%
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