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Will Russia target Kyiv on October 16, 2026?

Resolved: Yes 22d ago

The market favoured Yes at 95% a day out, and it won. How often it's right

Final probability 100%
24-hour volume$61k
Total volume$120k
Liquidity$25k
Resolved17 Oct 2026
How the odds moved · Will Russia target Kyiv on October 16, 2026?
0%50%100%100%12 Oct, 04:15 UTCnow
Price data
TimeChance of yes
now100%
16 Oct, 17:55 UTC99%
16 Oct, 17:29 UTC97%
16 Oct, 16:53 UTC98%
16 Oct, 16:20 UTC98%
16 Oct, 15:59 UTC97%
16 Oct, 15:24 UTC86%
16 Oct, 14:52 UTC90%
16 Oct, 14:23 UTC90%
16 Oct, 13:45 UTC92%
16 Oct, 13:24 UTC92%
16 Oct, 12:56 UTC92%
16 Oct, 12:26 UTC91%
16 Oct, 11:02 UTC92%
16 Oct, 10:49 UTC92%
16 Oct, 10:21 UTC92%
16 Oct, 09:54 UTC94%
16 Oct, 09:26 UTC92%
16 Oct, 08:59 UTC93%
16 Oct, 08:27 UTC94%
16 Oct, 07:53 UTC95%
16 Oct, 07:24 UTC95%
16 Oct, 06:43 UTC97%
16 Oct, 06:29 UTC97%
16 Oct, 05:35 UTC98%
16 Oct, 05:21 UTC98%
16 Oct, 04:56 UTC98%
16 Oct, 04:01 UTC97%
16 Oct, 03:43 UTC98%
16 Oct, 03:29 UTC97%
16 Oct, 02:55 UTC97%
16 Oct, 02:09 UTC97%
16 Oct, 01:56 UTC97%
16 Oct, 01:15 UTC96%
16 Oct, 00:55 UTC97%
16 Oct, 00:28 UTC96%
15 Oct, 23:42 UTC96%
15 Oct, 23:28 UTC97%
15 Oct, 22:42 UTC96%
15 Oct, 22:15 UTC96%
15 Oct, 20:45 UTC93%
15 Oct, 19:56 UTC94%
15 Oct, 19:09 UTC93%
15 Oct, 16:14 UTC94%
15 Oct, 15:38 UTC93%
15 Oct, 06:53 UTC94%
15 Oct, 04:56 UTC93%
15 Oct, 02:29 UTC93%
15 Oct, 00:42 UTC93%
14 Oct, 21:56 UTC94%
14 Oct, 20:59 UTC93%
14 Oct, 11:17 UTC92%
14 Oct, 10:57 UTC91%
14 Oct, 08:09 UTC91%
14 Oct, 05:49 UTC90%
14 Oct, 05:01 UTC91%
14 Oct, 04:34 UTC90%
14 Oct, 04:27 UTC90%
14 Oct, 03:48 UTC89%
14 Oct, 00:21 UTC88%
13 Oct, 23:53 UTC88%
13 Oct, 23:25 UTC89%
13 Oct, 22:31 UTC88%
13 Oct, 20:56 UTC87%
13 Oct, 20:06 UTC85%
13 Oct, 19:58 UTC86%
13 Oct, 14:42 UTC85%
13 Oct, 13:18 UTC86%
13 Oct, 12:15 UTC86%
13 Oct, 09:53 UTC85%
13 Oct, 09:26 UTC86%
13 Oct, 08:53 UTC85%
13 Oct, 08:27 UTC83%
13 Oct, 07:55 UTC82%
13 Oct, 07:21 UTC82%
13 Oct, 06:42 UTC79%
13 Oct, 06:28 UTC79%
13 Oct, 05:55 UTC77%
13 Oct, 05:28 UTC64%
13 Oct, 04:54 UTC60%
13 Oct, 04:15 UTC55%
12 Oct, 04:15 UTC87%

What counts

The market resolves to Yes if Russia launches an air strike or surface-to-surface missile at Kyiv on October 16, 2026, regardless of whether the munitions are intercepted. It resolves to No if no such qualifying action occurs, including cases where only small-arms fire, cyber operations, or unexecuted threats happen.

Written from Polymarket's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Polymarket are what decides it.

Outcomes

  • Yes 100%
  • No 0%

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