Will Xavier Becerra win the California Governor Election in 2026?
Implied probability 100%+1
24-hour volume$345k
Total volume$3.5M
Liquidity$215k
Resolves4 Nov 2026
Does the market have this right?
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What counts
The market resolves to Yes if Xavier Becerra wins the 2026 California gubernatorial election. It resolves to No if any other candidate wins. Readers often mistake the deadline for resolution, which occurs once the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC all call the race for the same candidate, or by official certification if they do not agree by July 31, 2027.
Written from Polymarket's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Polymarket are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 100%
- No 0%