Clavicular in jail by September 30?
Implied probability 2%−2
24-hour volume$627
Total volume$5k
Liquidity$2k
Resolves1 Oct 2026
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 2% |
| 24 Sept, 12:42 UTC | 2% |
| 24 Sept, 12:02 UTC | 2% |
| 24 Sept, 11:55 UTC | 2% |
| 24 Sept, 10:19 UTC | 2% |
| 24 Sept, 03:52 UTC | 2% |
| 23 Sept, 22:55 UTC | 2% |
| 23 Sept, 21:36 UTC | 2% |
| 23 Sept, 21:23 UTC | 2% |
| 23 Sept, 16:03 UTC | 3% |
| 23 Sept, 15:24 UTC | 3% |
| 23 Sept, 13:07 UTC | 3% |
| 23 Sept, 12:54 UTC | 3% |
| 23 Sept, 11:13 UTC | 3% |
| 23 Sept, 10:42 UTC | 3% |
| 23 Sept, 07:27 UTC | 3% |
| 23 Sept, 05:48 UTC | 3% |
| 23 Sept, 02:57 UTC | 3% |
| 23 Sept, 01:27 UTC | 3% |
| 22 Sept, 22:47 UTC | 3% |
| 22 Sept, 21:06 UTC | 3% |
| 22 Sept, 18:58 UTC | 5% |
| 22 Sept, 18:15 UTC | 6% |
| 22 Sept, 17:54 UTC | 6% |
| 22 Sept, 16:46 UTC | 6% |
| 22 Sept, 16:28 UTC | 6% |
| 22 Sept, 15:48 UTC | 6% |
Does the market have this right?
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What counts
The outcome is Yes if Braden Eric Peters serves any time in a U.S. jail or prison before September 30 at 11:59 PM ET. The outcome is No if he does not serve such time within that window. Readers often mistake the charging date for the start of incarceration, but only actual confinement counts toward resolution.
Written from Polymarket's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Polymarket are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 2%
- No 98%
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