Will OpenAI be the third-best AI Agent Lab at the end of November 2026?
Implied probability 30%−5
24-hour volume$172
Total volume$12k
Liquidity$2k
Resolves1 Dec 2026
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 30% |
| 7 Nov, 06:53 UTC | 29% |
| 7 Nov, 05:23 UTC | 30% |
| 7 Nov, 04:47 UTC | 28% |
| 7 Nov, 04:26 UTC | 28% |
| 7 Nov, 03:59 UTC | 28% |
| 7 Nov, 03:01 UTC | 28% |
| 7 Nov, 02:46 UTC | 30% |
| 7 Nov, 02:24 UTC | 30% |
| 7 Nov, 01:55 UTC | 30% |
| 7 Nov, 01:13 UTC | 32% |
| 7 Nov, 00:52 UTC | 35% |
| 7 Nov, 00:23 UTC | 35% |
| 6 Nov, 23:47 UTC | 35% |
| 6 Nov, 20:09 UTC | 33% |
| 6 Nov, 18:19 UTC | 34% |
| 6 Nov, 02:52 UTC | 36% |
| 6 Nov, 02:14 UTC | 36% |
| 6 Nov, 01:45 UTC | 36% |
| 6 Nov, 01:09 UTC | 37% |
| 6 Nov, 00:34 UTC | 36% |
| 6 Nov, 00:20 UTC | 36% |
| 5 Nov, 23:15 UTC | 36% |
| 5 Nov, 22:54 UTC | 36% |
| 5 Nov, 21:34 UTC | 36% |
| 5 Nov, 21:26 UTC | 36% |
| 5 Nov, 20:56 UTC | 37% |
| 5 Nov, 18:43 UTC | 36% |
| 5 Nov, 18:28 UTC | 36% |
| 5 Nov, 17:28 UTC | 36% |
| 5 Nov, 16:58 UTC | 36% |
| 5 Nov, 15:41 UTC | 37% |
| 5 Nov, 14:32 UTC | 36% |
| 5 Nov, 13:23 UTC | 37% |
| 5 Nov, 12:59 UTC | 38% |
| 5 Nov, 11:56 UTC | 39% |
| 5 Nov, 10:17 UTC | 38% |
| 5 Nov, 08:14 UTC | 38% |
| 4 Nov, 08:14 UTC | 28% |
Your call. How does this end?
Free, no money involved. Calls are scored against the market's price when you make them, so backing an underdog that wins scores most. Leaderboard · Your calls
Does the market have this right?
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What counts
The market resolves based on which AI company holds third place on the arena.ai Agent Arena Leaderboard’s Labs tab at noon ET on November 30, 2026. Readers must check the specific 'Labs' filter and ignore any models marked 'AutoEval.' The most common error is checking the wrong date or using a different leaderboard source.
Written from Polymarket's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Polymarket are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 30%
- No 70%
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