Will Ukraine re-enter Oleshky by November 30, 2026?
Implied probability 2%
24-hour volume$8k
Total volume$8k
Liquidity$13k
Resolves1 Dec 2026
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 2% |
| 30 Oct, 13:50 UTC | 2% |
| 30 Oct, 11:31 UTC | 3% |
| 30 Oct, 11:24 UTC | 2% |
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What counts
The market resolves to "Yes" if Ukraine controls any part of Oleshky by 11:59 PM ET on November 30, 2026, as shown on the ISW map. Control counts if Ukraine claims the territory or establishes it through a negotiated settlement, provided actual control exists.
Written from Polymarket's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Polymarket are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 2%
- No 98%
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