Will world GDP growth be ≤2.9% in 2026?
Implied probability 25%
24-hour volume$166
Total volume$9k
Liquidity$886
Resolves15 Jan 2027
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 25% |
| 23 Sept, 09:57 UTC | 25% |
| 22 Sept, 09:57 UTC | 25% |
Your call. How does this end?
Free, no money involved. Calls are scored against the market's price when you make them, so backing an underdog that wins scores most. Leaderboard · Your calls
Email me when the odds move
What counts
The market resolves based on the first IMF World Economic Outlook Update released between October 2026 and April 2027 that includes an estimate for 2026 world real GDP growth. The "Yes" outcome occurs if this specific IMF figure is 2.9% or lower, while "No" applies if it is higher.
Written from Polymarket's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Polymarket are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 25%
- No 75%
Trade this market on Polymarket →