Will the Republican Party hold below 190 House seats after the 2026 midterm elections?
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 26% |
| 21 Sept, 13:24 UTC | 26% |
| 21 Sept, 12:23 UTC | 26% |
| 21 Sept, 11:44 UTC | 26% |
| 21 Sept, 10:58 UTC | 25% |
| 20 Sept, 10:56 UTC | 24% |
| 20 Sept, 08:57 UTC | 23% |
| 19 Sept, 12:01 UTC | 23% |
| 19 Sept, 11:55 UTC | 23% |
| 19 Sept, 08:09 UTC | 23% |
| 18 Sept, 08:09 UTC | 25% |
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What counts
The outcome depends on the final Republican seat count in the 120th Congress after the November 3, 2026 election. If Republicans hold fewer than 190 seats, the answer is Yes; otherwise, it is No. Readers often mistake the date of the election for the resolution deadline, but the count includes runoff results and independent caucusing decisions that may extend the timeline to January 4th.
Written from Polymarket's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Polymarket are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 26%
- No 75%
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