Will Trump and Putin meet next in China?
Why it moved: −3 points at 14:50 UTC, after South China Morning Post: Why China’s frontier AI pioneers are expected to miss this week’s Xi-Trump summit — the latest article on its stories before the jump; what followed, not what caused it.
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 72% |
| 22 Sept, 18:15 UTC | 72% |
| 22 Sept, 17:20 UTC | 72% |
| 22 Sept, 16:46 UTC | 72% |
| 22 Sept, 15:48 UTC | 70% |
| 22 Sept, 14:50 UTC | 69% |
| 22 Sept, 12:57 UTC | 72% |
| 22 Sept, 11:27 UTC | 72% |
| 22 Sept, 10:34 UTC | 70% |
| 22 Sept, 10:26 UTC | 71% |
| 22 Sept, 05:54 UTC | 69% |
| 22 Sept, 04:26 UTC | 70% |
| 22 Sept, 02:55 UTC | 69% |
| 22 Sept, 02:27 UTC | 69% |
| 22 Sept, 00:32 UTC | 68% |
| 22 Sept, 00:26 UTC | 69% |
| 21 Sept, 15:02 UTC | 69% |
| 21 Sept, 14:55 UTC | 69% |
| 21 Sept, 13:53 UTC | 68% |
| 21 Sept, 13:24 UTC | 68% |
| 21 Sept, 10:10 UTC | 66% |
| 21 Sept, 09:16 UTC | 65% |
| 21 Sept, 08:24 UTC | 64% |
| 21 Sept, 07:28 UTC | 64% |
| 20 Sept, 22:22 UTC | 63% |
| 20 Sept, 20:39 UTC | 63% |
| 20 Sept, 16:57 UTC | 63% |
| 20 Sept, 16:29 UTC | 64% |
| 20 Sept, 15:43 UTC | 64% |
| 20 Sept, 14:49 UTC | 65% |
| 20 Sept, 14:04 UTC | 63% |
| 20 Sept, 10:28 UTC | 63% |
| 20 Sept, 09:27 UTC | 63% |
| 20 Sept, 05:28 UTC | 63% |
| 20 Sept, 01:57 UTC | 63% |
| 19 Sept, 23:52 UTC | 64% |
| 19 Sept, 23:12 UTC | 63% |
| 19 Sept, 22:42 UTC | 63% |
| 19 Sept, 21:05 UTC | 63% |
| 19 Sept, 20:17 UTC | 63% |
| 19 Sept, 18:58 UTC | 64% |
| 19 Sept, 16:48 UTC | 63% |
| 19 Sept, 08:09 UTC | 62% |
| 18 Sept, 05:12 UTC | 60% |
| 18 Sept, 04:59 UTC | 60% |
| 18 Sept, 04:26 UTC | 61% |
| 18 Sept, 03:38 UTC | 60% |
| 18 Sept, 03:13 UTC | 59% |
| 17 Sept, 10:42 UTC | 56% |
| 17 Sept, 10:29 UTC | 55% |
| 17 Sept, 09:30 UTC | 55% |
| 17 Sept, 09:23 UTC | 55% |
| 17 Sept, 08:32 UTC | 55% |
| 17 Sept, 08:25 UTC | 55% |
| 17 Sept, 07:16 UTC | 55% |
| 17 Sept, 00:04 UTC | 52% |
| 16 Sept, 23:56 UTC | 52% |
| 16 Sept, 09:19 UTC | 52% |
| 16 Sept, 04:33 UTC | 52% |
Your call. How does this end?
Free, no money involved. Calls are scored against the market's price when you make them, so backing an underdog that wins scores most. Leaderboard · Your calls
Does the market have this right?
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What counts
The market resolves based on where Trump and Putin next meet in person before December 31, 2026. A meeting requires direct interaction like a handshake or conversation; mere proximity does not count. Readers often mistake the linked story about Xi Jinping for the relevant event, but only meetings between Trump and Putin matter.
Written from Polymarket's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Polymarket are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 72%
- No 28%
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