Will Emmanuel Macron be the next leader out before 2027?
Implied probability 0%
24-hour volume$2k
Total volume$85k
Liquidity$37k
Resolves1 Jan 2027
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 0% |
| 6 Nov, 14:04 UTC | 0% |
| 4 Nov, 20:14 UTC | 0% |
| 4 Nov, 14:59 UTC | 0% |
| 4 Nov, 08:17 UTC | 1% |
| 3 Nov, 15:36 UTC | 1% |
| 1 Nov, 11:19 UTC | 1% |
| 1 Nov, 07:31 UTC | 1% |
| 1 Nov, 00:00 UTC | 1% |
| 31 Oct, 22:57 UTC | 1% |
| 31 Oct, 19:32 UTC | 0% |
| 31 Oct, 17:49 UTC | 0% |
| 31 Oct, 17:06 UTC | 0% |
| 31 Oct, 14:08 UTC | 0% |
| 31 Oct, 10:59 UTC | 1% |
| 31 Oct, 07:53 UTC | 1% |
Does the market have this right?
Email me when the odds move
What counts
Yes resolves if Emmanuel Macron permanently leaves his office before December 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET. No resolves if he remains in power through that deadline or serves only as a caretaker. Readers often mistake temporary suspensions or resignation announcements for permanent removal.
Written from Polymarket's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Polymarket are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 0%
- No 100%
Trade this market on Polymarket →