Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?
Implied probability 0%
24-hour volume$3k
Total volume$995k
Liquidity$215k
Resolves1 Jan 2027
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 0% |
| 2 Oct, 00:03 UTC | 0% |
| 1 Oct, 00:15 UTC | 0% |
| 30 Sept, 23:47 UTC | 0% |
| 29 Sept, 09:30 UTC | 0% |
| 28 Sept, 18:54 UTC | 0% |
| 28 Sept, 14:06 UTC | 0% |
| 28 Sept, 12:11 UTC | 0% |
| 28 Sept, 11:46 UTC | 0% |
| 26 Sept, 13:50 UTC | 0% |
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What counts
The outcome depends on which company holds the highest market capitalization at the end of the trading day on December 31, 2026. Readers often mistake the date of the linked news story for the resolution deadline or assume the deal itself changes the ranking immediately. The final determination relies on a consensus of credible reporting regarding the closing values on that specific date.
Written from Polymarket's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Polymarket are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 0%
- No 100%
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