Will New York Yankees win the 2026 American League Championship Series?
The market favoured No at 90% a day out, and it won. How often it's right
Final probability 0%
24-hour volume$16k
Total volume$122k
Liquidity$0
Resolved1 Dec 2026
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 0% |
| 8 Oct, 05:17 UTC | 0% |
| 8 Oct, 03:15 UTC | 2% |
| 8 Oct, 02:47 UTC | 5% |
| 8 Oct, 02:15 UTC | 6% |
| 8 Oct, 01:49 UTC | 12% |
| 8 Oct, 01:29 UTC | 10% |
| 8 Oct, 00:54 UTC | 13% |
| 8 Oct, 00:21 UTC | 13% |
| 7 Oct, 20:36 UTC | 10% |
| 7 Oct, 12:58 UTC | 11% |
| 7 Oct, 07:20 UTC | 10% |
| 6 Oct, 03:23 UTC | 11% |
| 6 Oct, 02:43 UTC | 12% |
| 6 Oct, 02:10 UTC | 13% |
| 6 Oct, 01:57 UTC | 23% |
| 6 Oct, 01:23 UTC | 21% |
| 6 Oct, 00:30 UTC | 25% |
| 6 Oct, 00:23 UTC | 24% |
| 5 Oct, 23:23 UTC | 25% |
| 5 Oct, 21:05 UTC | 24% |
| 5 Oct, 18:35 UTC | 24% |
| 5 Oct, 13:39 UTC | 24% |
| 5 Oct, 13:25 UTC | 24% |
| 5 Oct, 12:17 UTC | 24% |
| 5 Oct, 08:15 UTC | 24% |
| 5 Oct, 06:42 UTC | 24% |
| 5 Oct, 04:33 UTC | 24% |
| 5 Oct, 02:07 UTC | 23% |
| 5 Oct, 01:54 UTC | 23% |
| 5 Oct, 01:16 UTC | 24% |
| 5 Oct, 00:36 UTC | 24% |
| 5 Oct, 00:18 UTC | 24% |
| 4 Oct, 23:38 UTC | 24% |
| 4 Oct, 22:10 UTC | 24% |
| 4 Oct, 21:44 UTC | 20% |
| 4 Oct, 21:24 UTC | 23% |
| 4 Oct, 20:58 UTC | 23% |
| 4 Oct, 20:25 UTC | 20% |
| 4 Oct, 19:59 UTC | 21% |
| 4 Oct, 19:28 UTC | 22% |
| 4 Oct, 18:47 UTC | 22% |
| 4 Oct, 18:13 UTC | 21% |
| 4 Oct, 17:54 UTC | 21% |
| 4 Oct, 17:27 UTC | 16% |
| 4 Oct, 16:42 UTC | 19% |
| 4 Oct, 16:25 UTC | 21% |
| 4 Oct, 15:58 UTC | 24% |
| 4 Oct, 15:25 UTC | 24% |
| 4 Oct, 14:59 UTC | 24% |
| 4 Oct, 14:21 UTC | 24% |
| 4 Oct, 13:54 UTC | 23% |
| 4 Oct, 12:13 UTC | 23% |
| 4 Oct, 11:30 UTC | 24% |
| 4 Oct, 11:11 UTC | 23% |
| 4 Oct, 10:13 UTC | 23% |
| 4 Oct, 08:56 UTC | 23% |
| 4 Oct, 08:23 UTC | 22% |
| 4 Oct, 07:57 UTC | 21% |
| 4 Oct, 07:25 UTC | 20% |
| 4 Oct, 06:27 UTC | 18% |
| 4 Oct, 05:54 UTC | 19% |
| 4 Oct, 05:17 UTC | 25% |
| 4 Oct, 04:58 UTC | 25% |
| 4 Oct, 04:26 UTC | 24% |
| 4 Oct, 03:40 UTC | 24% |
| 4 Oct, 03:03 UTC | 23% |
| 4 Oct, 02:23 UTC | 23% |
| 4 Oct, 01:39 UTC | 23% |
| 4 Oct, 01:20 UTC | 23% |
| 4 Oct, 00:47 UTC | 28% |
| 4 Oct, 00:28 UTC | 29% |
| 3 Oct, 23:55 UTC | 30% |
| 3 Oct, 23:29 UTC | 28% |
| 3 Oct, 22:56 UTC | 31% |
| 3 Oct, 21:10 UTC | 33% |
| 3 Oct, 20:23 UTC | 32% |
| 3 Oct, 19:29 UTC | 33% |
| 3 Oct, 18:29 UTC | 34% |
| 3 Oct, 13:58 UTC | 35% |
| 3 Oct, 12:15 UTC | 35% |
| 3 Oct, 08:04 UTC | 36% |
| 3 Oct, 07:57 UTC | 35% |
| 3 Oct, 05:16 UTC | 34% |
| 3 Oct, 04:38 UTC | 35% |
| 3 Oct, 04:05 UTC | 34% |
| 2 Oct, 21:55 UTC | 34% |
| 2 Oct, 21:29 UTC | 34% |
| 2 Oct, 20:58 UTC | 34% |
| 2 Oct, 20:25 UTC | 34% |
| 2 Oct, 19:16 UTC | 34% |
| 1 Oct, 21:09 UTC | 38% |
What counts
The Yes outcome occurs if the New York Yankees win the 2026 American League Championship Series. The No outcome applies if any other team wins or if the Yankees are eliminated from contention before the series concludes. Readers often mistake the linked story about the Rays for a resolution, but only the final winner of the ALCS determines the result.
Written from Polymarket's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Polymarket are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 0%
- No 100%
View this market on Polymarket →