NewsMarkets

Markets

Will Donald Trump attend a US x Iran diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026?

Implied probability 6%−5
24-hour volume$4k
Total volume$28k
Liquidity$37k
Resolves1 Jan 2027

Why it moved: −5 points at 01:19 UTC, after Al Jazeera – Breaking News, World News and Video from Al Jazeera: Iran war live: Tehran warns US against new strikes; fighting rages in Yemen — the latest article on its stories before the jump; what followed, not what caused it.

How the odds moved · Will Donald Trump attend a US x Iran diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026?
0%50%100%6%16 Sept, 04:12 UTCnow
Price data
TimeChance of yes
now6%
21 Sept, 12:23 UTC6%
21 Sept, 11:56 UTC6%
21 Sept, 10:58 UTC6%
21 Sept, 10:24 UTC7%
21 Sept, 09:56 UTC7%
21 Sept, 09:16 UTC7%
21 Sept, 08:37 UTC7%
21 Sept, 08:24 UTC7%
21 Sept, 04:50 UTC6%
21 Sept, 04:00 UTC6%
21 Sept, 03:42 UTC7%
21 Sept, 02:55 UTC7%
21 Sept, 02:27 UTC7%
21 Sept, 01:48 UTC7%
21 Sept, 01:19 UTC7%
21 Sept, 00:38 UTC12%
21 Sept, 00:24 UTC13%
20 Sept, 21:46 UTC12%
20 Sept, 20:54 UTC13%
20 Sept, 19:47 UTC13%
20 Sept, 18:32 UTC12%
20 Sept, 17:18 UTC12%
20 Sept, 15:43 UTC12%
20 Sept, 15:07 UTC12%
20 Sept, 14:41 UTC12%
20 Sept, 14:24 UTC11%
20 Sept, 10:08 UTC11%
20 Sept, 09:35 UTC11%
20 Sept, 08:57 UTC11%
20 Sept, 07:53 UTC11%
20 Sept, 06:58 UTC11%
20 Sept, 06:25 UTC11%
20 Sept, 05:46 UTC11%
20 Sept, 05:21 UTC10%
20 Sept, 03:37 UTC10%
20 Sept, 02:41 UTC10%
20 Sept, 02:21 UTC9%
20 Sept, 01:57 UTC9%
20 Sept, 00:28 UTC9%
19 Sept, 21:27 UTC10%
19 Sept, 20:40 UTC10%
19 Sept, 20:24 UTC10%
19 Sept, 19:32 UTC10%
19 Sept, 19:11 UTC10%
19 Sept, 18:09 UTC10%
19 Sept, 17:56 UTC10%
19 Sept, 16:55 UTC10%
19 Sept, 15:30 UTC10%
19 Sept, 14:20 UTC10%
19 Sept, 13:04 UTC10%
19 Sept, 12:46 UTC10%
19 Sept, 11:55 UTC10%
19 Sept, 10:21 UTC9%
19 Sept, 09:56 UTC9%
19 Sept, 09:25 UTC9%
19 Sept, 08:53 UTC9%
19 Sept, 08:20 UTC9%
18 Sept, 05:12 UTC16%
18 Sept, 04:59 UTC16%
18 Sept, 03:44 UTC16%
18 Sept, 02:19 UTC16%
18 Sept, 01:59 UTC16%
18 Sept, 01:29 UTC16%
18 Sept, 00:50 UTC16%
18 Sept, 00:22 UTC17%
17 Sept, 23:44 UTC17%
17 Sept, 23:16 UTC17%
17 Sept, 22:56 UTC19%
17 Sept, 22:28 UTC25%
17 Sept, 21:54 UTC25%
17 Sept, 21:12 UTC26%
17 Sept, 20:59 UTC13%
17 Sept, 20:28 UTC12%
17 Sept, 19:57 UTC11%
17 Sept, 19:28 UTC11%
17 Sept, 14:38 UTC4%
17 Sept, 13:49 UTC4%
17 Sept, 05:05 UTC4%
17 Sept, 04:55 UTC4%
17 Sept, 04:04 UTC4%
17 Sept, 03:53 UTC4%
17 Sept, 03:24 UTC4%
17 Sept, 02:30 UTC4%
17 Sept, 00:47 UTC4%
16 Sept, 23:08 UTC4%
16 Sept, 22:51 UTC4%
16 Sept, 20:50 UTC4%
16 Sept, 20:24 UTC4%
16 Sept, 19:39 UTC4%
16 Sept, 12:25 UTC4%
16 Sept, 10:11 UTC4%
16 Sept, 08:34 UTC4%
16 Sept, 04:12 UTC4%

Your call. How does this end?

Free, no money involved. Calls are scored against the market's price when you make them, so backing an underdog that wins scores most. Leaderboard · Your calls

Email me when the odds move

We email a link to confirm first. At most one alert email every six hours; unsubscribe in one click. Privacy

What counts

For the market to resolve to Yes, Donald Trump must be physically present at a formal, senior-level diplomatic meeting between US and Iran representatives before December 31, 2026. The event must involve authorized officials acting in an official capacity and cannot be limited to technical staff or follow-on talks from previous rounds.

Written from Polymarket's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Polymarket are what decides it.

Outcomes

  • Yes 6%
  • No 94%

Trade this market on Polymarket →

Embed this market

Paste this into any web page to show the live odds, with a link back here.

Stories on this market