Will Strait of Hormuz traffic not return to normal in 2026?
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 87% |
| 20 Oct, 15:51 UTC | 87% |
| 20 Oct, 15:23 UTC | 87% |
| 20 Oct, 14:47 UTC | 87% |
| 15 Oct, 17:25 UTC | 89% |
| 15 Oct, 05:34 UTC | 88% |
| 15 Oct, 04:29 UTC | 88% |
| 15 Oct, 01:18 UTC | 88% |
| 15 Oct, 00:09 UTC | 88% |
| 13 Oct, 22:11 UTC | 88% |
| 13 Oct, 21:44 UTC | 87% |
| 13 Oct, 18:50 UTC | 87% |
Your call. How does this end?
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Does the market have this right?
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What counts
The market resolves to "Yes" if the IMF Portwatch 7-day moving average of Strait of Hormuz transit calls reaches 60 or higher in any month during 2026. It resolves to "No" if that threshold is never met by the end of December 2026, or if data stops being published before then. Readers often mistake the source of truth; only IMF Portwatch data counts, not news reports or other shipping indices.
Written from Polymarket's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Polymarket are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 87%
- No 14%
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