Will Clavicular be arrested by September 25?
Implied probability 2%
Total volume$2k
Liquidity$1k
Resolves1 Oct 2026
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 2% |
| 23 Sept, 20:27 UTC | 2% |
| 23 Sept, 19:54 UTC | 2% |
| 23 Sept, 12:45 UTC | 2% |
| 23 Sept, 12:14 UTC | 2% |
| 23 Sept, 11:51 UTC | 2% |
| 23 Sept, 11:13 UTC | 3% |
| 23 Sept, 10:42 UTC | 3% |
| 23 Sept, 10:04 UTC | 3% |
| 23 Sept, 09:50 UTC | 3% |
| 23 Sept, 09:28 UTC | 3% |
| 23 Sept, 08:11 UTC | 3% |
| 23 Sept, 07:51 UTC | 3% |
| 23 Sept, 06:28 UTC | 3% |
| 23 Sept, 05:42 UTC | 3% |
| 23 Sept, 02:26 UTC | 2% |
| 23 Sept, 01:59 UTC | 2% |
| 22 Sept, 21:12 UTC | 3% |
| 22 Sept, 16:09 UTC | 3% |
| 22 Sept, 15:40 UTC | 3% |
Does the market have this right?
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What counts
The market resolves to Yes if Clavicular is taken into physical custody by law enforcement before 11:59 PM ET on September 25. The arrest must involve booking, responding to a warrant, or transport to a police station, regardless of the specific charges. Readers often mistake the issuance of an arrest warrant or being charged for an actual arrest, which does not count.
Written from Polymarket's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Polymarket are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 2%
- No 98%
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