Will Mistral have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?
Implied probability 0%
24-hour volume$168
Total volume$187k
Liquidity$95k
Resolves31 Dec 2026
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 0% |
| 7 Oct, 07:20 UTC | 0% |
| 6 Oct, 17:53 UTC | 1% |
| 6 Oct, 08:29 UTC | 2% |
| 6 Oct, 07:57 UTC | 2% |
| 6 Oct, 07:25 UTC | 2% |
| 6 Oct, 06:59 UTC | 2% |
| 6 Oct, 06:27 UTC | 2% |
| 6 Oct, 05:41 UTC | 2% |
| 6 Oct, 05:21 UTC | 2% |
| 6 Oct, 04:55 UTC | 2% |
| 6 Oct, 04:29 UTC | 2% |
| 6 Oct, 03:55 UTC | 3% |
| 6 Oct, 03:23 UTC | 3% |
| 6 Oct, 02:50 UTC | 3% |
| 6 Oct, 02:10 UTC | 3% |
| 6 Oct, 01:57 UTC | 3% |
| 6 Oct, 01:23 UTC | 4% |
| 6 Oct, 00:56 UTC | 4% |
| 6 Oct, 00:23 UTC | 4% |
| 5 Oct, 23:42 UTC | 4% |
Does the market have this right?
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What counts
The market resolves by checking the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard on December 31, 2026, at 12:00 PM ET. The outcome is Yes if Mistral owns the model with the highest rank; otherwise, it is No. Readers often mistake the release date of a new model for the resolution deadline.
Written from Polymarket's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Polymarket are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 0%
- No 100%
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