Will the Democrats fail to sweep the House and Senate and a Democrat win the 2028 presidential election?
Implied probability 0%−20
24-hour volume$4k
Total volume$4k
Liquidity$65k
Resolves8 Nov 2028
Why it moved: −20 points at 05:39 UTC, after Politico Congress: Democrats are on track to control Congress. What will they do with their power? — the latest article on its stories before the jump; what followed, not what caused it.
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 0% |
| 4 Nov, 06:07 UTC | 0% |
| 4 Nov, 05:39 UTC | 0% |
| 3 Nov, 05:39 UTC | 21% |
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What counts
The Yes outcome requires Democrats to lose control of at least one chamber in the 2026 midterms while their candidate wins the 2028 presidential election. The No outcome covers all other combinations, including a Democratic sweep of Congress or a loss in the presidential race.
Written from Polymarket's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Polymarket are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 0%
- No 100%
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