Skin cancer vaccine FDA approved by September 30, 2027?
Implied probability 42%+1
Total volume$7k
Liquidity$5k
Resolves1 Jan 2028
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 42% |
| 27 Sept, 13:29 UTC | 42% |
| 27 Sept, 06:34 UTC | 41% |
| 26 Sept, 08:12 UTC | 41% |
| 25 Sept, 21:27 UTC | 39% |
| 25 Sept, 19:32 UTC | 39% |
| 25 Sept, 19:25 UTC | 39% |
| 25 Sept, 18:22 UTC | 39% |
| 25 Sept, 17:52 UTC | 39% |
| 25 Sept, 17:13 UTC | 39% |
| 25 Sept, 15:27 UTC | 39% |
| 24 Sept, 15:27 UTC | 32% |
Your call. How does this end?
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What counts
The market resolves to Yes if the FDA issues an approval letter for intismeran autogene by September 30, 2027, at 11:59 PM ET. It resolves to No if that specific deadline passes without such an approval. Readers often mistake a positive clinical trial result or an Approvable Letter for a final approval.
Written from Polymarket's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Polymarket are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 42%
- No 59%
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