Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026?
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 26% |
| 3 Nov, 20:12 UTC | 26% |
| 3 Nov, 19:29 UTC | 25% |
| 3 Nov, 03:33 UTC | 24% |
| 2 Nov, 23:16 UTC | 25% |
| 2 Nov, 06:49 UTC | 26% |
| 2 Nov, 05:53 UTC | 27% |
| 2 Nov, 05:24 UTC | 28% |
| 2 Nov, 04:33 UTC | 28% |
| 2 Nov, 04:26 UTC | 29% |
| 2 Nov, 03:42 UTC | 29% |
| 2 Nov, 03:28 UTC | 28% |
| 2 Nov, 01:46 UTC | 28% |
| 1 Nov, 20:43 UTC | 26% |
| 1 Nov, 20:29 UTC | 26% |
| 1 Nov, 17:05 UTC | 24% |
| 1 Nov, 16:51 UTC | 24% |
| 1 Nov, 12:16 UTC | 24% |
| 1 Nov, 02:15 UTC | 26% |
| 31 Oct, 13:01 UTC | 27% |
| 31 Oct, 12:32 UTC | 26% |
| 31 Oct, 12:04 UTC | 26% |
| 31 Oct, 10:38 UTC | 27% |
| 31 Oct, 09:52 UTC | 26% |
| 31 Oct, 08:49 UTC | 26% |
| 31 Oct, 02:54 UTC | 24% |
| 31 Oct, 01:18 UTC | 23% |
| 30 Oct, 17:20 UTC | 22% |
| 30 Oct, 15:35 UTC | 24% |
| 30 Oct, 08:16 UTC | 23% |
| 30 Oct, 07:28 UTC | 22% |
| 30 Oct, 06:21 UTC | 23% |
| 30 Oct, 05:00 UTC | 24% |
| 30 Oct, 01:41 UTC | 24% |
| 30 Oct, 00:42 UTC | 25% |
| 30 Oct, 00:06 UTC | 25% |
| 29 Oct, 23:40 UTC | 25% |
| 29 Oct, 22:24 UTC | 26% |
| 29 Oct, 21:48 UTC | 27% |
| 29 Oct, 19:22 UTC | 25% |
| 29 Oct, 18:06 UTC | 28% |
| 29 Oct, 17:46 UTC | 26% |
| 29 Oct, 10:26 UTC | 22% |
| 29 Oct, 09:12 UTC | 23% |
| 29 Oct, 08:43 UTC | 22% |
| 28 Oct, 23:40 UTC | 23% |
| 28 Oct, 23:04 UTC | 24% |
| 28 Oct, 20:37 UTC | 22% |
| 28 Oct, 20:09 UTC | 23% |
| 28 Oct, 19:40 UTC | 22% |
| 28 Oct, 10:48 UTC | 23% |
| 28 Oct, 10:16 UTC | 23% |
| 28 Oct, 09:31 UTC | 23% |
| 28 Oct, 07:56 UTC | 24% |
| 28 Oct, 01:42 UTC | 22% |
| 28 Oct, 01:28 UTC | 21% |
| 27 Oct, 22:23 UTC | 22% |
Your call. How does this end?
Free, no money involved. Calls are scored against the market's price when you make them, so backing an underdog that wins scores most. Leaderboard · Your calls
Does the market have this right?
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What counts
The outcome is Yes if any measure imposing a one-time tax on individuals with at least $1 billion in wealth passes in the November 3, 2026 California election. The outcome is No if no such measure appears on the ballot by June 25, 2026, or if all qualifying measures are removed or amended to lower the threshold below $1 billion. Readers often mistake the certification deadline for the election date.
Written from Polymarket's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Polymarket are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 26%
- No 75%
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