US x China agree to pace the AI frontier in 2026?
Implied probability 8%+1
24-hour volume$1k
Total volume$62k
Liquidity$44k
Resolves1 Jan 2027
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 8% |
| 7 Oct, 20:50 UTC | 8% |
| 7 Oct, 19:27 UTC | 8% |
| 7 Oct, 18:47 UTC | 8% |
| 7 Oct, 17:52 UTC | 8% |
| 7 Oct, 17:09 UTC | 7% |
| 7 Oct, 16:55 UTC | 7% |
| 7 Oct, 15:24 UTC | 7% |
| 7 Oct, 13:33 UTC | 7% |
| 7 Oct, 11:03 UTC | 7% |
| 1 Oct, 18:05 UTC | 7% |
| 1 Oct, 17:14 UTC | 7% |
| 1 Oct, 16:44 UTC | 7% |
| 1 Oct, 16:06 UTC | 7% |
| 1 Oct, 15:58 UTC | 7% |
| 1 Oct, 14:21 UTC | 7% |
Your call. How does this end?
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Does the market have this right?
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What counts
The market resolves to "Yes" if both the US and Chinese governments officially announce acceptance of an AI pacing agreement by December 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET. An AI pacing agreement requires commitments to safety requirements, compute caps, limits on autonomous improvement, or pauses on model training or release.
Written from Polymarket's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Polymarket are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 8%
- No 92%
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