Will Iran sabotage undersea internet cables by October 31?
Implied probability 3%−1
24-hour volume$3k
Total volume$36k
Liquidity$17k
Resolves1 Nov 2026
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 3% |
| 28 Oct, 01:49 UTC | 4% |
| 28 Oct, 00:53 UTC | 4% |
| 27 Oct, 23:38 UTC | 4% |
| 27 Oct, 22:23 UTC | 4% |
| 26 Oct, 22:30 UTC | 4% |
| 26 Oct, 22:08 UTC | 4% |
| 26 Oct, 18:48 UTC | 4% |
| 26 Oct, 17:06 UTC | 4% |
| 26 Oct, 16:51 UTC | 4% |
| 26 Oct, 16:24 UTC | 4% |
| 26 Oct, 15:54 UTC | 4% |
| 26 Oct, 14:47 UTC | 5% |
| 26 Oct, 13:47 UTC | 5% |
| 26 Oct, 13:06 UTC | 5% |
| 26 Oct, 12:39 UTC | 5% |
| 26 Oct, 12:25 UTC | 5% |
| 26 Oct, 11:49 UTC | 5% |
| 26 Oct, 11:16 UTC | 5% |
| 26 Oct, 10:42 UTC | 5% |
| 26 Oct, 10:14 UTC | 5% |
| 26 Oct, 09:46 UTC | 5% |
| 26 Oct, 09:24 UTC | 5% |
| 26 Oct, 08:44 UTC | 5% |
| 23 Oct, 06:11 UTC | 5% |
| 23 Oct, 05:32 UTC | 5% |
| 23 Oct, 05:11 UTC | 5% |
| 23 Oct, 04:57 UTC | 5% |
| 23 Oct, 04:17 UTC | 5% |
| 23 Oct, 03:41 UTC | 5% |
| 23 Oct, 00:28 UTC | 5% |
| 22 Oct, 23:20 UTC | 5% |
| 22 Oct, 19:52 UTC | 5% |
| 22 Oct, 19:03 UTC | 5% |
| 22 Oct, 18:49 UTC | 5% |
| 22 Oct, 09:54 UTC | 5% |
| 22 Oct, 09:26 UTC | 5% |
| 22 Oct, 03:45 UTC | 5% |
| 21 Oct, 21:41 UTC | 5% |
| 21 Oct, 20:57 UTC | 5% |
| 21 Oct, 20:20 UTC | 5% |
| 21 Oct, 15:46 UTC | 4% |
| 21 Oct, 14:05 UTC | 2% |
| 21 Oct, 12:07 UTC | 3% |
Your call. How does this end?
Free, no money involved. Calls are scored against the market's price when you make them, so backing an underdog that wins scores most. Leaderboard · Your calls
Does the market have this right?
Email me when the odds move
What counts
The market resolves to Yes if Iran or a listed proxy physically breaks undersea internet cables before October 31 at 11:59 PM ET. Cyber attacks do not count, and the outcome depends on confirmed physical damage rather than attempted sabotage. Readers often mistake cyber interference for physical damage or miss the specific deadline of 11:59 PM ET.
Written from Polymarket's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Polymarket are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 3%
- No 97%
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