Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the December 2026 meeting?
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 77% |
| 27 Oct, 18:41 UTC | 77% |
| 27 Oct, 18:12 UTC | 76% |
| 26 Oct, 23:45 UTC | 75% |
| 26 Oct, 22:37 UTC | 75% |
| 26 Oct, 20:56 UTC | 75% |
| 26 Oct, 19:58 UTC | 74% |
| 26 Oct, 18:40 UTC | 74% |
| 26 Oct, 11:31 UTC | 76% |
| 25 Oct, 05:51 UTC | 77% |
| 25 Oct, 04:36 UTC | 78% |
| 24 Oct, 19:37 UTC | 77% |
| 24 Oct, 16:40 UTC | 75% |
| 24 Oct, 04:03 UTC | 74% |
| 24 Oct, 01:06 UTC | 74% |
| 23 Oct, 21:48 UTC | 73% |
| 23 Oct, 21:18 UTC | 73% |
| 23 Oct, 20:35 UTC | 73% |
| 23 Oct, 20:28 UTC | 73% |
| 23 Oct, 19:57 UTC | 73% |
| 23 Oct, 19:27 UTC | 73% |
| 23 Oct, 16:07 UTC | 73% |
| 23 Oct, 14:16 UTC | 75% |
| 23 Oct, 11:13 UTC | 73% |
| 23 Oct, 10:24 UTC | 74% |
| 23 Oct, 09:55 UTC | 74% |
| 23 Oct, 06:11 UTC | 73% |
| 23 Oct, 00:02 UTC | 72% |
| 22 Oct, 23:55 UTC | 71% |
| 22 Oct, 23:13 UTC | 71% |
| 22 Oct, 19:23 UTC | 72% |
| 22 Oct, 18:56 UTC | 73% |
| 22 Oct, 18:27 UTC | 68% |
| 22 Oct, 17:45 UTC | 68% |
| 22 Oct, 17:16 UTC | 68% |
| 22 Oct, 16:54 UTC | 71% |
| 22 Oct, 15:28 UTC | 75% |
| 22 Oct, 14:54 UTC | 75% |
| 22 Oct, 14:24 UTC | 78% |
| 22 Oct, 13:56 UTC | 78% |
| 21 Oct, 15:53 UTC | 79% |
Your call. How does this end?
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What counts
The Yes outcome occurs if the Federal Reserve raises the upper bound of the target federal funds rate by 25 basis points after its December 2026 meeting. The No outcome applies if the rate remains unchanged or changes by any other amount. Readers often mistake the linked news story for the resolution source, but only the official FOMC statement issued after the December 8-9, 2026 meeting counts.
Written from Polymarket's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Polymarket are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 77%
- No 24%
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