Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-11-04?
The market favoured Yes at 79% a day out, and it won. How often it's right
Final probability 100%
24-hour volume$3.2M
Total volume$3.1M
Liquidity$1.6M
Resolved4 Nov 2026
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 100% |
| 4 Nov, 16:20 UTC | 82% |
| 4 Nov, 15:36 UTC | 81% |
| 4 Nov, 14:01 UTC | 82% |
| 4 Nov, 06:07 UTC | 81% |
| 4 Nov, 00:07 UTC | 82% |
| 3 Nov, 22:19 UTC | 81% |
| 3 Nov, 20:19 UTC | 80% |
| 2 Nov, 03:49 UTC | 79% |
| 1 Nov, 23:57 UTC | 78% |
| 1 Nov, 23:07 UTC | 79% |
| 31 Oct, 23:07 UTC | 76% |
What counts
The market resolves to Yes if Real Madrid CF wins the match on November 4, 2026, based solely on the result within the first 90 minutes of regular play plus stoppage time. The outcome depends on the official final score recognized by the governing body or event organizers, with secondary data sources used only if official statistics are not published within two hours.
Written from Polymarket's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Polymarket are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 100%
- No 0%
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