Will the Democrats win the Connecticut governor race in 2026?
The market favoured Yes at 98% a day out, and it won. How often it's right
Final probability 100%
24-hour volume$3k
Total volume$13k
Liquidity$32k
Resolved4 Nov 2026
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 100% |
| 4 Nov, 02:41 UTC | 99% |
| 4 Nov, 02:26 UTC | 99% |
| 4 Nov, 01:49 UTC | 99% |
| 4 Nov, 01:27 UTC | 98% |
| 3 Nov, 17:58 UTC | 97% |
| 3 Nov, 15:57 UTC | 98% |
| 3 Nov, 12:42 UTC | 98% |
| 3 Nov, 12:14 UTC | 98% |
| 3 Nov, 08:52 UTC | 98% |
| 3 Nov, 06:37 UTC | 98% |
| 3 Nov, 06:23 UTC | 98% |
| 3 Nov, 05:32 UTC | 98% |
| 2 Nov, 12:42 UTC | 98% |
| 2 Nov, 12:12 UTC | 98% |
| 2 Nov, 09:25 UTC | 98% |
| 2 Nov, 06:14 UTC | 98% |
| 2 Nov, 05:31 UTC | 98% |
| 2 Nov, 05:24 UTC | 98% |
| 2 Nov, 04:54 UTC | 98% |
| 2 Nov, 04:26 UTC | 98% |
| 2 Nov, 03:35 UTC | 98% |
| 2 Nov, 03:13 UTC | 98% |
| 2 Nov, 01:17 UTC | 98% |
| 1 Nov, 21:34 UTC | 98% |
| 31 Oct, 21:33 UTC | 98% |
What counts
The Yes outcome occurs if the Democratic nominee wins the 2026 Connecticut gubernatorial election. The No outcome occurs if any other candidate wins. Readers often mistake the linked story about a House seat for the relevant race, but this market depends solely on the governor election results.
Written from Polymarket's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Polymarket are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 100%
- No 0%
View this market on Polymarket →