Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be ≤1.0% at the end of 2026?
Implied probability 1%
24-hour volume$3k
Total volume$271k
Liquidity$24k
Resolves1 Jan 2027
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 1% |
| 16 Oct, 14:52 UTC | 1% |
| 16 Oct, 14:23 UTC | 1% |
| 16 Oct, 06:56 UTC | 1% |
| 16 Oct, 05:55 UTC | 1% |
| 16 Oct, 05:14 UTC | 1% |
| 16 Oct, 04:56 UTC | 1% |
| 16 Oct, 01:56 UTC | 1% |
| 16 Oct, 01:22 UTC | 1% |
| 16 Oct, 00:55 UTC | 1% |
| 16 Oct, 00:02 UTC | 1% |
| 15 Oct, 19:56 UTC | 1% |
| 15 Oct, 17:25 UTC | 1% |
| 15 Oct, 11:53 UTC | 1% |
| 15 Oct, 05:54 UTC | 1% |
| 15 Oct, 05:09 UTC | 1% |
| 15 Oct, 04:56 UTC | 1% |
| 15 Oct, 04:29 UTC | 1% |
| 15 Oct, 01:55 UTC | 1% |
| 15 Oct, 00:58 UTC | 1% |
| 14 Oct, 23:55 UTC | 1% |
| 14 Oct, 23:21 UTC | 1% |
| 14 Oct, 18:55 UTC | 1% |
| 14 Oct, 18:27 UTC | 1% |
| 14 Oct, 17:46 UTC | 1% |
| 14 Oct, 17:17 UTC | 1% |
| 13 Oct, 17:17 UTC | 0% |
Does the market have this right?
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What counts
The market resolves based on the upper limit of the Federal Reserve's target interest rate range after the December 2026 FOMC meeting. The outcome is Yes if that upper bound is 1.0% or lower, and No if it is higher. Readers often mistake the resolution source for news reports rather than official Federal Reserve statements.
Written from Polymarket's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Polymarket are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 1%
- No 99%
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